Quick thread on some omicron thoughts with @BBCNews today.
1. At population level, Omicron's sheer growth advantage is likely to outweigh any reduction in severity from existing immunity, at least in short term. More covid patient to NHS -> less NHS for everything else.
2. We can do more and we should do more - but how much more is the really hard question.
3. But *when* govt might do something is much harder to answer because Christmas is round the corner. If this were any other time, I suspect we'd there would be more public health measures in place already.
4. And finally - Get your booster - you are now *not* fully vaccinated until you get your 3rd dose. PLUS we must make schools safer before Jan since kids do not have that booster protection.
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THREAD: Am going to post some clips of my interview just now with @SkyNews which hopefully will explain a bit more about omicron, UK and what we can do...
and I address *that* xmas party
1. Is it ok just cos it boosters should protect against severe disease?
2. importance of isolation if you are a household contact! and need for support...
England should follow Scotland in this.
3. And the government will *not* struggle to get measures through - the CRG are a minority and there is a large parliamentary majority for doing more. That is comes from other parties should not stop govt from doing the right things.
THREAD on exponential growth, Omicron & what we might see in England over next few weeks.
In Gauteng province SA, cases (now almost all Omicron) have been growing at 25% a day for last three weeks.
Omicron rapidly increasing here, at roughly similar rate (so far). 1/12
Boosters might well slow it down, and vax + booster should reduce severe illness, but even a small percentage of large number can be a very large number.
And no reason to think Omicron can't sustain 25% daily growth here for at least a few weeks (*in absence of measures*). 2/12
Meanwhile, Delta is actually increasing slowly at the moment in England - Omicron might not replace it straight away, so much as co-exist and overtake it.
Sajid Javid said 276 sequenced cases of Omicron in England to date - all would likely have been infected pre 1 Dec. 3/12
TLDR pure omicron growth there looks pretty scary. We do NOT yet know how it will translate here. 1/7
Just plotting daily reported cases (dots) and the rolling centred average shows rapid increase in cases last few weeks of November. Blue dots are weekend reporting effects (Sundays and Mondays).
But for exponential growth we really need log scales... 2/7
Same chart on log scale looks like 2 periods of exp growth - one slower in 1st half Nov & then faster in 2nd half. Can interpret as period when Omicron gaining dominance over Delta (so smaller % of cases) & from 15th purer Omicron growth (now considered >90% of Gauteng cases) 3/7
TLDR: boosters going well now, cases rising particularly in children, admissions & deaths dropping 1/5
First vaccination: boosters now in about quarter of population - NI is a bit behind other nations.
Very good booster coverage in over 70s - would be great to get it higher.
Significantly lower uptake in more deprived areas.
Teen vax ongoing (slowly). 2/5
Second cases: cases climbing in UK. Over 50K again today. By date of test, climbing in NI & England and falling (a little) in Wales & Scotland. But positivity rates falling in NI so could be more testing.
Slightly diff picture from ONS with nations either rising or flattish. 3/5