Regular reminder, cos 🛒 ignored my & others' advice & spent 2021 dicking around instead of e.g taking procurement/distribution of antivirals seriously, we're now in lap of gods re hospitalisation rate of omicron. If we're unlucky then Jan-Feb wave worse than 2021 #RegimeChange
We already have antivirals - our political parties & Whitehall have simply not done what a competent Gvt wd do - organise to manufacture & distribute so people can get in <48hours and greatly reduce burden on NHS. Deathly incompetence that will continue without #RegimeChange
The failure of No10 & Parliament is much greater than Whitehall's - latter cd have done this IF politicians had prioritised. Now theyre all just crossing their fingers...
Odds must be >50% 🛒 tells people - have xmas and *stay there* (i.e where you are) - unless we get lucky on hospitalisation rates...
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1/ Again despite deaths+econ harm, western states 1/ aren't acting on new drugs with urgency, 2/ this isn't politically contentious - parties across West cannot imagine *actually accelerating the abysmal administrative state*, media ditto. So 1000s more to die/suffer pointlessly
2/ Drug trials are being halted cos drugs so effective it's unethical to continue them - but the bureaucracies then just say yeah we'll get to this sometime in a few months maybe... And there's no controversy. Biden keeps these clowns. Ditto SW1, ditto Brussels
3/ We briefly changed this mentality with e.g Vaccine Taskforce. But the lesson in SW1 is NOT 'how do we learn & do better', it's 'how do we ignore lessons & get back to normal (i.e perma frivolity)'. And political media NEVER takes MANAGEMENT seriously
Today another e.g of PM decision to go in opposite direction to Vote Leave plan & instead be normal Tory: planning dropped, tax up, public service reform dropped, civil service… Today siding with the old forces instead of doing what public want, I.e upending the old forces
In 2004 me + a handful, almost £0, 0 grassroots etc won referendum by 80-20, a result that ~never happens in democracies. How? Our message was based on widespread hate for politicians. This is why we won so big AND why it was ignored in SW1 as insiders didnt want to face reality
This v powerful dynamic is also another reason why Remain/SW1 did not understand Vote Leave campaign in 2015-16. We recycled ideas from 2004. Seems today Tory MPs again ignoring reality. One day it will catch up with them, soon if LAB ditches dud Starmer
I wrote in 2014 how MoD procurement was horrific & having delved v deeply into it 2019-20, incl nuclear, it was *even worse in every way than even I said*. MoD/services full of people who understand but add this to list of things this no10 will ignore not fix
Also bear in mind this report does not go into classified stuff like the nuclear infrastructure which is *MUCH worse* than the worst of this report! Both parties & senior Whitehall have allowed this rot to continue. Breaking this cycle was another reason why Vote Leave did Brexit
In 2020 the CABSEC & I, with CHX support, ran a secret 'tunnel' outside normal processes to establish the first numbers agreed by HMT/CABOFF/MoD to be honest for >20 yrs. The problems in MoD have been horrific & consistently covered up by Parliament, not exposed
Watching meetings on covid I think protocols/software that choreograph mtngs to expose these cognitive habits is worth trillions. Smart social proof cd make it costly to avoid protocol. Asking the 'stupid' Q often is 1000x more valuable than rest of mtng danluu.com/look-stupid/
Eg Ben Warner frequently said in Cabinet room, 'I think we're looking at the wrong graph, this graph is just wrong.' Risked looking v stupid. But added extremely high value cos he was right, 20 people including pm WERE looking at the wrong graph! *Almost nobody copied him though*
If you created a protocol, supported by software & training, & made hi status, as surgeons have done, to make it socially UNacceptable NOT to ask core questions to avoid everybody fooling themselves, you wd have far fewer v high stakes Gvt fiascoes...
How could Labour win? Replace dud 'dead player' Starmer with Midlands woman who can build a team & focus on target voters in marginal seats - disconnect Tories from power by focus on violent crime & small business ecosystem, marginalise trans nutjobs et al dominiccummings.substack.com/p/how-could-la…
Ps. No Jess Phillips is NOT the answer. She's focused on London media. Labour must shift focus *away from London* if it wants to disconnect Tories from power
Remember all you lefty nutjobs, Labour can do all sorts of lefty nutjob stuff *if you win*, cos you control brains of ~80% of those who control the media & almost all institutions, but *are you serious about winning*?
We took over a party on ~10%, worst constitutional crisis in century, much of deep state angling for BINO or 2REF. So we wriggled thro with best option we cd & intended to get the 🛒 to ditch bits we didn't like after whacking Corbyn. We prioritised. Now time for IM2 #Frosty
For all the cant about international law, a/ states break it every week, b/ the idea it's the epitome of morality is low grade student politics pushed by lawyers/officials to constrain politics they oppose. Govt shd focus on solving problems & chill viz "i/n law" viz NI #IMBill2
Shd we generally stick to deals? Of course. Sometimes break them? Of course. Just like the EU, US, China and every other state does. International diplomacy cannot be judged by the standards of a student duel, and lawyers are hired help not the masters