Thread by @McFaul

In 2010, "Russia" attended the NATO summit in Lisbon and called the friendly meeting "historic in terms of its spirit and atmosphere.." 1/ THREAD

At the NATO summit in 2010, "Russia" presented a grand proposal for missile defense cooperation, not exactly something you normally do with enemies. 2/

In 2011, "Russia" abstained on UN Security Resolutions 1970 & 1973, authorizing the use of force against Libya by NATO countries. Russia could have vetoed these resolutions and stopped NATO countries, but did not. It was a major cooperative moment between Russia-US-NATO. 3/

These "cases" of intense cooperation between Russia-US-NATO occurred after NATO expansion. (You cant explain cases of cooperation and confrontation cited the same independent variable) 4/

In 2014, Russia reverted back to talking about NATO expansion as a threat. For 5 years, 2009-2014, NATO expansion was almost never discussed between US and Russian leaders. (NB, I worked for Obama between 2009-2014 & attended almost all of these mtgs) 5/

So what changed between 2010 and 2014? Did NATO become stronger? No. Did NATO try to bring Ukraine in? No. Was the US more threatening to Russia? No. Rather, things changed inside Russia and Ukraine. In other words, you have to bring domestic politics into the story. 6/

In 2011, Putin announced he was seeking a 3rd term. In 2011, massive demonstrations erupted inside Russia (and Arab world). In 2013, new massive demonstrations erupted in Ukraine. In 2014, Yanukovich fled Ukraine. In 2014, Putin annexed Crimea & supported separatists. 7/

These domestic-level variables inside Russia & Ukraine -- not changes in BOP, not NATO policy, not US policy (Obama was president the whole time) drove changes in Russia's threat perception about NATO constructed by Putin. Power matters in IR. Domestic politics matter too. 8/ END