Thread by @InvestiAnalyst

The PA:

P1 (Core): $CRWD, $PLTR, $UPWK, $UPST $AFRM $CFLT $AMPL * $DLO * $S

P2: (Mgmd) $AMD $SE $AMBA $SI $GDYN $BILL $MNDY $ZS $DDOG

Company updates, Commentary, and a general recap of the past 30-days:

1/ Every month, I post a portfolio snapshot update (Last month portfolio recap)

Exits: $DOCN $LC $GRAB $MAGT $PATH $COIN.

Initiations: $S, $DLO (I'll explain later), Bit of $UPWK in my core.

In P2, Added more $GDYN, $ZS.

New pos: $BILL and $MNDY.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1457536891910197252?s=20

2/ Individual Updates with P2:

$AMBA:

+ Accelerating top-line growth with a healthy 24% EBITDA Margins and 15% FCF
+ Semiconductors are the highest-ranked industry in tech and AMBA has been one of the strongest.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1465823304594464778?s=20

3/ $MNDY:

+ I dug deeper into $MNDY & $ASAN.
+ Solid Q2 results.
+ To be honest, I sold & bought again. My conviction isn't super high as I suspect growth MIGHT soon fall off due to a low moat
+ But right now, MNDY has one of the best SaaS metrics. Hold.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1462249614736695302?s=20

4/ $DDOG:

Happily started a position on the $155 dip.

+ DDOG is the best of breed, high conviction SaaS name. I'm hoping we get more dips, so I can add shares.

+ They made some interesting announcements

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1466842784929832966?s=20

5/ $ZS:

I have a low-cost basis on $ZS as I've owned for a while, but happily added on the recent dip (hope for more).

+ ZS is executing on all fronts. Acceleration in growth and demand for their next-gen ZTA products.

High conviction, nothing more:

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1467999866567774214?s=20

6/ $CRWD:

CRWD delivered business as usual.

Growth is decelerating and it wasn't their strongest quarter, but still very impressive. I continue to hold.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1466185583315886080?s=20

7/ $AFRM

I wrote out my thesis to answer the question of a lack of moat.

I've seen data from AMZN customers, PYPL and Shopify's Black Friday that confirm AFRM should see a strong next Q.

Everyone knows about my conviction here, but happy to be wrong

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1462594177024335882?s=20

8/ $UPST:

Yikes is the word!

I had an $84 Cost bas., but sucks that so much profit wiped away!

Overall, I still think it's hard to find a Co like $UPST growing 70%+ with 30%+ EBITDA Margins, solid founder!

Might add in the low 150's, but I like them.

Koyfin estimates below

9/ $PLTR:

My conviction is waning to be honest. From my analysis, I fear $PLTR is going to be an Unprofitable Low 30% grower w/ high SBC.

I continue to hold b'cos of the Product potential, Tailwinds, & Founders, but if by Q2 2022, growth doesn't rev up. I fear a sell.

10/ $AMPL:

Great product w/ immense potential within a new category.

However, huge part of my thesis relies on the fundamentals (Growth at least 60%+), but I'm beginning to have mixed feelings about it and I'm doubting the guide for next Q. Hold for nw

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1458222163304062979?s=20

11/ $DLO:

Interesting One. I sold out immediately in the After-hours at around $42 when we didn't get any Q4 guidance.

I discussed the importance of exiting a highly-valued stock especially when growth starts to slows or there is high uncertainty.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1461216051144757248?s=20

12/ $DLO Cont'd:

After a 32% fall & see @Investing_Lion tweet
"$DLO is one of the quickest contractions in multiples I have seen this year. It went from 116x EV/GP NTM in Aug, 79x in Oct, and nw 47x."

I picked a small pos as my risk is lower and I like the 30% EBITDA Margins.

13/ $GDYN:

+ A leading tech consulting Co focused on ML/AI.
+ Accelerating growth (120% YoY)
+ 14% EBITDA Margins
+ Young and early.

One of the strongest stocks in the current market. I added to my position.

14/ $PATH Exit:

My Thesis was wrong.

+ Growth is slowing down
+ ARR is hanging on a clip
+ Selective disclosure by Mgmt is worrying (No DBNRR & some missing metrics)
+ As a result, they don't deserve their current valuation.

I'll re-evaluate in Q4.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1468714816663695360?s=20

15/ $S:

Started a position:

I shared all my thesis this week and on Twitter Spaces. Not much to say unless, I'm hoping we get a dip to the low <30's, so I can build and add more shares.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1468796820788629506?s=20

16/ SentinelOne vs CRWD Spaces Recording below:

Discussed FTNT, PANW, ZS and other key topics:

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1469694211926765573?s=20

17/ Cash:

I added over 25% cash. Its ultimately that the stocks I want badly are not low enough.

I spend some time on Macro's, although I prefer not to discuss them on Twitter. End of QE will make markets volatile going btw now and Feb. Just my opinion

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1466937918577168387?s=20

18/ The end of QE (120b/mnth) never ends calmly. So as Growth/Tech Investor, volatility is part of the game, so personally, I'm prepared for a 30% drawdown.

ALSO, growth could slow/10-yr is low, so tech could do well. I cant time markets. I like my position & ready for Vol.

19/ Together with preparing myself for high volatility over the next 90-days.

The most important thing is to be level-headed. SUPER ACTIVE watching the strongest stocks/refreshing your trigger watchlist. This is what I do every night.

I'll share my observations so far below:

20/ This is a period to watch changes in valuations and Co's that can drive 20-30% growth over nxt 5yrs. Obviously, % from ATH doesn't mean a stock is cheap (look back at stocks that fell from Dec '18)

List below is solid & I rec follow @Investing_Lion:

https://twitter.com/Investing_Lion/status/1467210327427366913?s=20

21/ Watchlist/Sector:

I ran a scan and If you peel out the Nasdaq - apart from Big Tech/large caps holding the market.

My scan shows Electric Semiconductor are the strongest stocks: $NVDA $QCOM $AMD $AVGO, $AMBA

If you look at fundamentals, many are seeing accelerating growth

22/ Second aspect of tech holding the market is Cybersecurity ($FTNT, $PANW), Tech consulting services ($ACN, $GDYN) and Data Infrastructure ($DDOG, $SNOW, $ORCL)

The other companies below: I'd add: $PUBM, $TTD, $NVDA.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1468419466681798657?s=20

23/ From my analysis, it appears the market is pricing high earnings growth 4 Semiconductors in 2022.

Within the enterprise, market is pricing in strong growth in cybersecurity and the Data Infrastructure and database part of the market. Only an opinion.

https://twitter.com/InvestiAnalyst/status/1460015767047524353?s=20

24/ Lastly, there is something that has been enticing to study $TOST, $MQ, $FTNT, $DASH, $HCP closely. I'm still digging deep.

Anyways, this is my last portfolio recap for 2021. I've done almost 10-/11. Now, I'll be reflecting back on all my horrible decisions this year...a/

25/ I'll look back at all my decisions in 2021, frameworks, write out my lessons and highlights for 2022 on substack over the holidays. Likely put out a couple threads on them.

I'll also be writing a deep-dive evaluating the entire Data/ML Database Infrastructure space.

26/ END: I'm giving myself a new year's challenge to write more long-form on Substack.

Most of my tweets/threads help formulate my thesis and serve as a decision-making journal, but structured long-form might be better, so nxt Jan, I'll do this on SS.

Anyways, have a great Dec!

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