Exponential growth, BUT you can still go to panto? 🤦🏻♂️
As a nation, we’re approaching the idyllic halcyon period between the moment the brakes get slammed on for an emergency stop, and the moment we fly through the windscreen (because, as you know, seatbelts are only for wimps).
I just heard @SCrabbPembs on #DailyPolitics saying Plan B measures were already in effect in Wales and hadn’t curbed the spread of Delta (which is true).
Logic might then suggest, that FAR greater restrictions might be needed to curb the spread of a MORE transmissible virus? 🤔
Apparently not. It seems that (for now) is just crazy talk among our political class. 🤷🏻♂️
Watching the news coverage on the Plan B shenanigans tomorrow is just surreal. 🤦🏻♂️
“Will there need to be more restrictions before Christmas?”
Abso-fucking-lutely...and you may quote me. 🤬
Last Thursday morning, I texted the following (see screenshots) to a friend via WhatsApp.
Very gently, she told me I was panicking about nothing.
About 28 hours later, Nicola Sturgeon used the term “tsunami” related to #Omicron.
My friend no longer regards me as an alarmist.
I don’t have a crystal ball.
Wait, actually dammit, I have two of them, but only as photography props. 📷 😎
Under normal circumstances, I can’t predict the future, but I do understand the implications of exponential growth.
A hard rain’s a-gonna fall. 😬
Am I utterly scunnered with Covid? Yes.
Would I like a normal Christmas? Yes.
“…better the hard truth, I say, than the comforting fantasy. And in the final tolling it often turns out that the facts are more comforting than the fantasy.”
- Carl Sagan, The Demon-Haunted World
“We've arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science and technology. And this combustible mixture of ignorance and power, sooner or later, is going to blow up in our faces.” - Carl Sagan
The collective denial about the current situation is staggering to behold.
The #Omicron bullet has already been fired, from a distance.
It’s probably better to duck for cover if you spot the sniper, rather than waiting until you actually hear the gunshot.
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@SashaSagan It's just as well that there is no charge (I hope! 🙏🏻) for quoting someone, or I would have incurred significant debt by now, given how often I have quoted your father.
I'm sure you already know his profound impact on so many of us.
My first "encounter" (via TV) with him was when he did the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures in 1977. I was a geeky schoolkid interested in science.
Your dad was inspirational.
I didn't become an astronomer, but I did subsequently navigate my way through a couple of chemistry degrees.
His beautful book dedication to your mum in "Cosmos", is my favourite such dedication of all-time. 😊
Since Covid first manifested its ghastly presence on these shores, I think it fair to say that most of us have gained an understanding of the R number.
In simple terms:
R < 1.0 = Good! ✔️ 👍🏻
R > 1.0 = Bad! ✖️ 👎🏻
Obviously, it has ebbed and flowed in response to: lockdowns beginning; lockdowns ending; vaccine rollout; and social bubbles etc.
However, by this point, few can be in any doubt that R being significantly above 1.0, say around 1.5, is VERY bad indeed. 🤮 #ExponentialGrowth
We have been incredibly lucky to have several highly effective vaccines appear, so quickly.
Just imagine what 2021 would have looked like in the face of the #Delta strain, without ANY vaccines? 😱
But our “leaders”, basically opted for a “vaccine only” strategy. 🙄
‘But Boris Johnson may have a get out from claims he broke the law - because there is an exemption for “a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services”.’
An utterly selfish, narcissistic, arsehole always looking to play a “get out” card. 🤬
Yesterday, I learned a new Covid-related skill, how to calculate the doubling time for an exponential growth curve (in this case related to #Omicron cases growth in the UK).
Yesterday, that value worked out at 2 days.
Adding in today's data, now makes it a value of 1.4 days! 😱
My instruction manual for learning how to do this calculation, was this amazingly helpful video by @pk_kent 🙏🏻