Humanity is a bewildering species. 🤔

Since Covid first manifested its ghastly presence on these shores, I think it fair to say that most of us have gained an understanding of the R number.

In simple terms:

R < 1.0 = Good! ✔️ 👍🏻
R > 1.0 = Bad! ✖️ 👎🏻
Obviously, it has ebbed and flowed in response to: lockdowns beginning; lockdowns ending; vaccine rollout; and social bubbles etc.

However, by this point, few can be in any doubt that R being significantly above 1.0, say around 1.5, is VERY bad indeed. 🤮
#ExponentialGrowth
We have been incredibly lucky to have several highly effective vaccines appear, so quickly.

Just imagine what 2021 would have looked like in the face of the #Delta strain, without ANY vaccines? 😱

But our “leaders”, basically opted for a “vaccine only” strategy. 🙄
So, given that background, along comes #Omicron

In the immortal words of Dick Dastardly: “Drat! Double Drat! & Triple Drat!”

Here’s the thing.

#Omicron has exhibited an R number of around 4!!!! #DaFuq

How the ffffork, did we collectively shift from “getting” that:

R = 1.5 = Very Bad Indeed! 😱

to

R = 4 = Meh! It will be “mild”. 🥳
I mean, sure...the #Omicron numbers (or at least the ones we could detect) were low initially.

They would be, inevitably, at that stage. 🤷🏻‍♂️

However, the Covid Classic numbers in March 2020 were low too.

Remind me, how did that turn out? 🤔
Oh, and remember that Covid Classic flourished in the face of a complete lockdown.

Now we have a strain with an R number of 4, while major gigs are happening, nightclubs are open, and people are going, “Yayyy, Christmas!”🎄

How’s that likely to play out? 🤔
Granted, we do have a significant proportion of the population who have been vaccinated and/or previously infected.

However, we now have data (via @UKHSA) which shows that “fully vaccinated” ain’t what it used to be, in terms of preventing symptomatic infection from Omicron.
Two doses of AZ (5-6 months after 2nd dose) show 0% efficacy against Omicron.

Two doses of Pfizer (5-6 months after 2nd dose) show 35% efficacy against Omicron.

Booster shots kick those numbers up to 71% and 75% respectively.

Against Delta those numbers are 95% and 96%.
We don’t yet know the vaccine efficacy in terms of protecting against serious illness from Omicron.

It’s too soon for that data.

However, we can reasonably predict that vaccines will offer greater protection against serious illness from Omicron.

That’s the nature of vaccines.
Let’s remember that a significant chunk of the “fully vaccinated” (but unboosted) UK population have had two doses of AZ.

0% efficacy against symptomatic infection? Eek!😱
Repeatedly, the media (and politicians) are (mindlessly, it seems 🙄) repeating the mantra that:

“Omicron cases are doubling every 2-3 days.”

That’s simply not correct.

It will fluctuate from day to day, but it is currently LESS than 2 days.

Do the maths.

It’s easy. 🤓
The 3 days value seems to have arisen as the result of an honest error in calculation. It was corrected but has become an enduring part of the Omicron narrative. 🤷🏻‍♂️
As a nation, we’re effectively at a Christmas party where a lit match was casually dropped into a waste basket filled with newspaper.

We saw there was smoke.

We can now see flames. 🔥

Our “strategy” appears to be, let the house burn down and THEN call the fire brigade. 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🙄
Shit is going to get real and it will do so VERY soon. 😬

While the mildness/severity of Onicron very much matters, it also (to some extent) doesn’t, in that the sheer volume of cases it is generating, WILL overwhelm hospitals.
It may well happen in London first, because London is the least vaccinated part of the UK, as well as the most densely populated. (Chart from @TravellingTabby)

What options do we have then? Image
Here’s the thing.

Even if we slam on the brakes for a full emergency stop at THAT point, it won’t help...for weeks.

Why?

The immediate future has already been written.

It’s almost a form of time travel. 🤓
At some point, Omicron’s exponential growth will slow and then start to fall.

Like a dodgy pyramid scheme running out of suckers, as more and more people have already been infected by Omicron, it will start running out of available victims.
We’re not going to be able to detect THAT peak.

Instead, we’ll detect an apparent (false) peak.

Why?

Testing capacity. 😬
Such a gloomy thread, huh?

It gets worse. Those with a nervous disposition should leave now.

You might be thinking, “Well, at least Omicron will burn through the susceptible population fairly quickly and then we’ll be free?” 🤔

Well, yes...but...
Omicron already exhibits significant mutations which allow it to partially evade vaccines.

Each person infected by it becomes a (potential) Omicron mutation factory. 😬

And we know it replicates a LOT.

It will be doing so in multiple countries around the world.
I’m sure Pfizer/Moderna etc., are already working on an Omicron specific vaccine.

Alas, at the same time, Omicron is blindly (via random mutations and evolution) working on multiple mutant strains.

Most will probably come to nothing. 🙏🏻

But, you can see other possibilities. 😱
As observed by @dgurdasani1 earlier today, “We’re sleepwalking into a crisis.”

There appears to be (almost) complete collective denial about the challenge we are facing, because we’re “done with Covid”?

Well, Covid isn’t yet done with us, alas. 😢
So, in summary, humanity kinda sucks.

If any mad scientist out there actually gets a Jurassic Park up and running, I’ll be resigning my membership and defecting to #TeamDinosaur 🦕

However, until then, I’m all in on this, but people...try to FOCUS, huh? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Think McFly, think!

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Kenny Mathieson

Kenny Mathieson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @KennyMathieson

14 Dec
@SashaSagan It's just as well that there is no charge (I hope! 🙏🏻) for quoting someone, or I would have incurred significant debt by now, given how often I have quoted your father.

e.g.

I'm sure you already know his profound impact on so many of us.

My first "encounter" (via TV) with him was when he did the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures in 1977. I was a geeky schoolkid interested in science.

Your dad was inspirational.
I didn't become an astronomer, but I did subsequently navigate my way through a couple of chemistry degrees.

His beautful book dedication to your mum in "Cosmos", is my favourite such dedication of all-time. 😊
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec
Ye Gods!

Who is briefing @NicolaSturgeon?

Once again, she quotes an #Omicron doubling time of 2-3 days. 🤬

It’s under 2 days, and certainly nowhere close to 3 days.

By all means, let’s see the working behind a calculation of 3 days?

I’ll wait and then point out the error. 🙄
You can get some variation in the calculation of doubling time.

It depends on which exponential curve you’re measuring.

For example, growth in Total #Omicron cases...OR growth in Daily Omicron cases.

Clearly they are related, but will result in (not very) different values.
The sinplest method of calculation (which I use) works it out from a formula using the starting value and the current value.

You can make it more complicated by working out a best fit exponential curve to the data.

Again, you’ll get a (not very) different number via that route.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
So, arguably there are two ways you could calculate the doubling time for #Omicron

1. Doubling Time of Total UK cases

and

2 Doubling Time of Daily UK case totals

I’ve just calculated both, using the latest data.

The values are 1.43 and 1.66 days respectively. 😬
Last week, there was much talk about a doubling time of 2-3 days.

I knew nothing about how to calculate this value until Saturday evening, but it’s a simple formula.

The 3 day estimate is (and was) nonsense, unsupported by the data.

It looks to have arisen from a basic error.
The calculation itself is very simple (assuming you know basic algebra) and is outlined in this thread from yesterday.

Read 7 tweets
13 Dec
Exponential growth, BUT you can still go to panto? 🤦🏻‍♂️

As a nation, we’re approaching the idyllic halcyon period between the moment the brakes get slammed on for an emergency stop, and the moment we fly through the windscreen (because, as you know, seatbelts are only for wimps).
I just heard @SCrabbPembs on #DailyPolitics saying Plan B measures were already in effect in Wales and hadn’t curbed the spread of Delta (which is true).

Logic might then suggest, that FAR greater restrictions might be needed to curb the spread of a MORE transmissible virus? 🤔
Apparently not. It seems that (for now) is just crazy talk among our political class. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Watching the news coverage on the Plan B shenanigans tomorrow is just surreal. 🤦🏻‍♂️

“Will there need to be more restrictions before Christmas?”

Abso-fucking-lutely...and you may quote me. 🤬
Read 8 tweets
13 Dec
Remember those glorious days when @BBCNews could state (with confidence) how many children a certain politician had? 🤔

“If anyone says I was speeding, I want to see the evidence.” #SafetyFirst

As convincing statements of total innocence go... 🤦🏻‍♂️

news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi…
“For a man who wants to be Prime Minister, Boris Johnson is in danger of developing a reputation for breaking the law.”

Rules (and safety) are for...lesser mortals, apparently.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3…
‘But Boris Johnson may have a get out from claims he broke the law - because there is an exemption for “a vehicle being used for police, fire and rescue services”.’

An utterly selfish, narcissistic, arsehole always looking to play a “get out” card. 🤬

mirror.co.uk/news/politics/…
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
Yesterday, I learned a new Covid-related skill, how to calculate the doubling time for an exponential growth curve (in this case related to #Omicron cases growth in the UK).

Yesterday, that value worked out at 2 days.

Adding in today's data, now makes it a value of 1.4 days! 😱 Image
My instruction manual for learning how to do this calculation, was this amazingly helpful video by @pk_kent 🙏🏻

How do you do the calculation Kenny?

Thanks for asking.

Here's the underlying data. Image
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(