Thread by @KennyMathieson

Humanity is a bewildering species. 🤔

Since Covid first manifested its ghastly presence on these shores, I think it fair to say that most of us have gained an understanding of the R number.

In simple terms:

R < 1.0 = Good! ✔️ 👍🏻
R > 1.0 = Bad! ✖️ 👎🏻

Obviously, it has ebbed and flowed in response to: lockdowns beginning; lockdowns ending; vaccine rollout; and social bubbles etc.

However, by this point, few can be in any doubt that R being significantly above 1.0, say around 1.5, is VERY bad indeed. 🤮
#ExponentialGrowth

We have been incredibly lucky to have several highly effective vaccines appear, so quickly.

Just imagine what 2021 would have looked like in the face of the #Delta strain, without ANY vaccines? 😱

But our “leaders”, basically opted for a “vaccine only” strategy. 🙄

So, given that background, along comes #Omicron

In the immortal words of Dick Dastardly: “Drat! Double Drat! & Triple Drat!”

Here’s the thing.

#Omicron has exhibited an R number of around 4!!!! #DaFuq

How the ffffork, did we collectively shift from “getting” that:

R = 1.5 = Very Bad Indeed! 😱

to

R = 4 = Meh! It will be “mild”. 🥳

I mean, sure...the #Omicron numbers (or at least the ones we could detect) were low initially.

They would be, inevitably, at that stage. 🤷🏻‍♂️

However, the Covid Classic numbers in March 2020 were low too.

Remind me, how did that turn out? 🤔

Oh, and remember that Covid Classic flourished in the face of a complete lockdown.

Now we have a strain with an R number of 4, while major gigs are happening, nightclubs are open, and people are going, “Yayyy, Christmas!”🎄

How’s that likely to play out? 🤔

Granted, we do have a significant proportion of the population who have been vaccinated and/or previously infected.

However, we now have data (via @UKHSA) which shows that “fully vaccinated” ain’t what it used to be, in terms of preventing symptomatic infection from Omicron.

Two doses of AZ (5-6 months after 2nd dose) show 0% efficacy against Omicron.

Two doses of Pfizer (5-6 months after 2nd dose) show 35% efficacy against Omicron.

Booster shots kick those numbers up to 71% and 75% respectively.

Against Delta those numbers are 95% and 96%.

We don’t yet know the vaccine efficacy in terms of protecting against serious illness from Omicron.

It’s too soon for that data.

However, we can reasonably predict that vaccines will offer greater protection against serious illness from Omicron.

That’s the nature of vaccines.

Let’s remember that a significant chunk of the “fully vaccinated” (but unboosted) UK population have had two doses of AZ.

0% efficacy against symptomatic infection? Eek!😱

Repeatedly, the media (and politicians) are (mindlessly, it seems 🙄) repeating the mantra that:

“Omicron cases are doubling every 2-3 days.”

That’s simply not correct.

It will fluctuate from day to day, but it is currently LESS than 2 days.

Do the maths.

It’s easy. 🤓

The 3 days value seems to have arisen as the result of an honest error in calculation. It was corrected but has become an enduring part of the Omicron narrative. 🤷🏻‍♂️

As a nation, we’re effectively at a Christmas party where a lit match was casually dropped into a waste basket filled with newspaper.

We saw there was smoke.

We can now see flames. 🔥

Our “strategy” appears to be, let the house burn down and THEN call the fire brigade. 🤷🏻‍♂️🤦🏻‍♂️🙄

Shit is going to get real and it will do so VERY soon. 😬

While the mildness/severity of Onicron very much matters, it also (to some extent) doesn’t, in that the sheer volume of cases it is generating, WILL overwhelm hospitals.

It may well happen in London first, because London is the least vaccinated part of the UK, as well as the most densely populated. (Chart from @TravellingTabby)

What options do we have then?

Here’s the thing.

Even if we slam on the brakes for a full emergency stop at THAT point, it won’t help...for weeks.

Why?

The immediate future has already been written.

It’s almost a form of time travel. 🤓

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1470566030615498753

At some point, Omicron’s exponential growth will slow and then start to fall.

Like a dodgy pyramid scheme running out of suckers, as more and more people have already been infected by Omicron, it will start running out of available victims.

We’re not going to be able to detect THAT peak.

Instead, we’ll detect an apparent (false) peak.

Why?

Testing capacity. 😬

Such a gloomy thread, huh?

It gets worse. Those with a nervous disposition should leave now.

You might be thinking, “Well, at least Omicron will burn through the susceptible population fairly quickly and then we’ll be free?” 🤔

Well, yes...but...

Omicron already exhibits significant mutations which allow it to partially evade vaccines.

Each person infected by it becomes a (potential) Omicron mutation factory. 😬

And we know it replicates a LOT.

It will be doing so in multiple countries around the world.

I’m sure Pfizer/Moderna etc., are already working on an Omicron specific vaccine.

Alas, at the same time, Omicron is blindly (via random mutations and evolution) working on multiple mutant strains.

Most will probably come to nothing. 🙏🏻

But, you can see other possibilities. 😱

As observed by @dgurdasani1 earlier today, “We’re sleepwalking into a crisis.”

There appears to be (almost) complete collective denial about the challenge we are facing, because we’re “done with Covid”?

Well, Covid isn’t yet done with us, alas. 😢

https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1470685729906999299

So, in summary, humanity kinda sucks.

If any mad scientist out there actually gets a Jurassic Park up and running, I’ll be resigning my membership and defecting to #TeamDinosaur 🦕

However, until then, I’m all in on this, but people...try to FOCUS, huh? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Think McFly, think!