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Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

14 Dec

1/ Thread: Deep Dives in 2022

I just closed the poll for deep dives in 2022. Some tight calls there, and some interesting data points about my subscribers.

Let me share the poll results in this thread.

2/ My email for the poll went out to ~800 annual subscribers. Open rate for the email was 71.4% and 298 participated in the poll. Pretty decent participation.

3/ Subscriber base for MBI Deep Dives is almost equally divided between individual investors and professional investors.

It's challenging to write for an audience with this level of diversity, but I relish it every month!

Read 12 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

11 Dec

1/6 Thread: Myth of the "average" investor

One of the common misperceptions I think is many believe they just need to be better than the "average" investor to beat the market in the long-term. The reality is very, very different.

Let me explain.

2/6 Imagine 10 people started actively managing their money today. They all have $100. They invest for 30 years and they all generate different return over that period.

Three got completely wiped out. Five people generated between 1% and 5% CAGR.

3/6 Of the initial 10 people, you have 8 of them who have generated anemic returns over 30-yr period.

If you make better than 5%, you will be among the top 20 percentile. You can also *feel* much better than the average investor.

Read 7 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

10 Dec

1/ Thread: $LULU FY 3Q'22 Update

This was an interesting call to understand how strong Lulu's core brand is, and also how dismal the state of connected fitness is right now.

Here are my notes.

2/ Company Operated Stores: In 3Q'22, revenue from stores +38% YoY. Impressive that store productivity already exceeded 3Q'20 (pre-pandemic) level.

DTC/e-commerce was +21% which was incredible given +93% growth same quarter last yr

Overall topline +30% YoY; 2-yr CAGR +26%

3/ Women's segment +24%
Men's +29%
Accessories +40%

By geography: 2-yr CAGR China +70%, Europe +20%

Overall international segment is profitable, Europe is not. On track to open 40-45 international stores (50-55 overall) this year.

Read 13 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

5 Dec

@GavinSBaker

1/ I really enjoyed @GavinSBaker interview with @GnDsville. Many probably already read it, but I wanted to keep some excerpts on my timeline.

Everything below is quotes copied from the interview.

2/ I think a lot of the success I’ve had since then is due to a super lucky decision I made as a very, very young man. And that decision was to not walk away from tech. That may sound like a strange thing to say today, but in 2002, all the great investing minds of my generation..

3/ walked away from tech because they were listening to Buffett.

investing is a game of cumulative knowledge and compounding advantage. And the only reason I didn't listen to Buffett was because of my personal interest in science fiction. That was lucky.

Read 12 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

24 Nov

1/ Thread: $ADSK FY 3Q’22 Update

Just when I thought I escaped the recent carnage relatively unscathed, ADSK happened.

-15% AH, and -25% from ATH. Here are my notes.

2/ 3Q topline beat high end of guidance. Overall growth has accelerated a bit this quarter, but based on guidance, unfortunately the acceleration is unlikely to sustain.

3/ All the recent buzzwords here

"While demand is robust, we believe supply chain disruption and resulting inflationary pressures, a global labor shortage making it harder for our customers to staff new projects and the ebb and flow of COVID are contributing to the deceleration"

Read 14 tweets

Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

22 Nov

1/ "Why are so many people selling subscriptions?"

Because the only cost is opportunity cost. Since some run newsletter as side hustle, there may not even be much opportunity cost for them.

2/ It’s extremely high FCF margin (~85-95%) business with potentially a very long runway (if you're really good) and you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to get paid.

So it’s no surprise people want to start one.

3/ "If you're any good, why not just invest and share your knowledge for free?"

Most people don’t have capital. 😊

I’m also not sure whether I’m any good.

You cannot put food on the table if you do it for free. Readers also cannot/won't get consistent output if it's free.

Read 10 tweets

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