Thread by @AndrewPRLevi

Why’s a parliamentary minority running the UK?

A 🧵.

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Parliament by numbers:

🔵+ Cons/ DUP: 372
🔴+ Opposition parties: 270
⚫️ Abstentionists/Speaker: 8

Needed for majority: 322

(a) pro Johnson-Frost Brexit: ~250 (🔵+)

(b) anti strict Covid measures: ~80 (🔵+) /1.

The Johnson-Frost Brexit - dislocating the UK from the EU customs union & single market, & putting a border between GB & NI - is supported by about two thirds of Conservative MPs (& DUP).

About one third see serious & escalating damage to the UK from it. And never wanted it. /2.

Opposition MPs (ex DUP) also oppose the Johnson-Frost Brexit, precisely because of that damage.

Having voted in favour, with a “no deal” gun to their heads, doesn’t alter that.

Combined, that’s ~390 MPs who know it has to be reversed.

A majority of ~140. /3.

Yet, as things stand, there’s no prospect of it being reversed. Why?

Because support for that course is split between a minority of Conservative MPs, who aren’t willing to combine forces with opposition MPs; & opposition MPs who are similarly unwilling. /4.

Or, if some are in principle, they’re failing to find a way to do it.

Some will question whether Keir Starmer’s Labour wants to reverse the Johnson-Frost Brexit.

I think he & they must.

I also think they want to, but are playing a dangerous, tactical, party political game. /5.

On strict Covid-prevention measures (in England), the parliamentary majority in favour is even greater. Probably ~480.

Yet the government is running scared.

Why? /6.

Because it, along with the great majority of Conservative MPs, is held hostage (voluntarily, to be sure) by a minority in their ranks more than capable of overturning their parliamentary majority. /7.

To say the government & party don’t want to rely on the votes of opposition MPs would be a gross understatement.

But, failing to cooperate would prevent crucial measures from being introduced for tens of millions of people. To prevent potential mass death & disablement. /8.

Still, there’s huge effort by government whips - under instructions from the PM - to minimise the number of Conservative “rebels”.

Some of that’s attempted coercion.

Some, offers of preferment or other advantages.

Some, dilution of the Covid public health measures. /9.

Some Conservative Covid refuseniks are reasonable MPs who happen to take a particular stance, viewed by many of their colleagues as eccentric, on this subject.

Most, however, belong to what might most politely be called the “libertarian wing” of the party. /10.

Some of this is just in the nature of a political party system. MPs hang together with their party colleagues to protect their governing majority & implement their programme.

Understandable.

But that’s politics as usual.

The UK faces severe & highly unusual crises. /11.

Existential crises.

First, the Johnson-Frost Brexit. Much more than just “Brexit”, deeply damaging through that is.

It’s accompanied by & inextricably linked with a deliberate assault on the security, prosperity & well-being of the country, the rule of law & constitution. /12.

Second, Covid. Literally fatal.

The more dilettante the approach to containment & suppression of the disease, the more economically & socially damaging it becomes. /13.

Third, international crises. China, Russia, climate, WMD, poverty & instability.

Threats to our safety & survival.

But a government unable even to be truthful or organise a legally & ethically compliant way of managing staff morale in Whitehall during a lockdown. Pathetic. /14.

A mixture of out of date party loyalty & egotistical political careerism, by some, is preventing the majority of MPs serving the national interest.

At a time when failing to do betrays, on the most fundamental level, the people of GB & NI.

That’s just wrong. Unacceptable. /15.

Westminster party loyalties & party boundaries are now long-since past their shelf-life.

They are a serious national security threat. To all the home nations. Across the whole UK. /16.

It’s unpatriotic to trash the security, prosperity & well-being of the UK. To wreck the constitution & rule of law.

It’s time for the patriotic majority of Westminster MPs to take back control. /17.

If that shatters the Conservative Party & derails promising political careers reliant on the old party system, it’s a very small price. Which any patriot will willingly pay.

The same goes for opposition parties’ old certainties. Those days are over.

Country & people first. /18.

Let’s paint that parliamentary picture by numbers:

▫️ ~390 patriotic MPs can restore decency & effective government

▫️ ~250 MPs don’t want that

▫️Majority: ~140

Of ~120 current Conservative MPs in the first group, if half won’t help, that’s still ~330 v 310. /19.

We’re out of time.

Time to step up. /20. End