"'I think demand would exceed supply and some customers would be without electricity' if there's another bout of bad weather comparable to the storms in February, said Beth Garza" of @RSI

Abbott's guarantee is "foolhardy and dangerous"
#txlege #txenergy
statesman.com/story/business…
"We are only as strong as our weakest link,"said @TimMorstad of @AARPTX. “There has not been nearly enough urgency at the @txrrc...to make sure that gas-fired electric plants will have gas if we get extreme cold"
#txlege #energytwitter 2/6
"'If we get the same weather, we will have outages' attributable to an overmatched power grid, said Doug Lewin... 'They may not be as (widespread), and they may not be as long-lasting — but we will have outages.'"

2 biggest reasons: lack of regs for gas supply winterization &...
...lack of weatherization of homes & buildings to reduce demand. See the great study from @joshdr83 & @bcshaffer: "Our results highlight that Texas’s
increased susceptibility to cold weather extremes is not limited to the supply side, but the demand side as well."
#txlege 4/6
They quantify 10GW of increased demand over a normal winter peak.

There has been zero progress on this front at the @PUCTX or @txrrc (gas efficiency & demand response programs could help, too!)

We need to reduce demand to prevent future outages.
5/6
Great article from @bob_sechler. He gave me the last word: "I don't want to fearmonger, but we all lived through this in Feb. I'm taking actions bc I don't think we're ready." Have water, food, battery backup, firewood, a small generator... Be prepared. #WinterIsComing #txlege

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More from @douglewinenergy

16 Dec
@PUCTX meeting starts in a few minutes (9:30CT). Lots of agenda items, including one (#52373) on the future of the ERCOT electric market w/ major customer cost and reliability implications. I'll tweet about it here.
Livestream here: adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/open_m…
#txlege #txenergy
I put together two threads on the staff memo with the proposed changes.
For reference, the memo is here: interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
Explanation of Phase 1 proposals here
Explanation of Phase 2 proposals here:

#energytwitter
There are lots of members of the public in the room with what appear to be paper mache power lines (hard to tell from the feed). Public comment period was changed to 10:30, would normally be at 9:30.

Market design changes will be discussed at the end of the meeting.
#txlege
Read 68 tweets
15 Dec
The final @PUCTX meeting of 2021 is tmrw & Cmsrs may make some decisions on market redesign that could add billions in customer costs. The previous🧵summarized proposed Phase 1 changes. This one focuses on the items in Phase 2 & summarizes comments
#txlege
interchange.puc.texas.gov/search/documen…
There are 3 major proposals in the Phase II Market Design Proposals section:
- Load Serving Entity Obligation (LSEO)
-Dispatchable Energy Credits (DECs) (aka Dispatchable Portfolio Standard)
-Backstop Reliability Service (BRS)

I'll explain each below
#txenergy #txlege
The Load Serving Entity Obligation would require each retail electric provider (REP, e.g. TXU, Reliant, etc), municipal utility, & co-op (any entity that serves customers) to purchase capacity ahead of when it will be delivered. This is essentially a form of a capacity market Image
Read 13 tweets
11 Dec
Texas' electric market is undergoing a redesign. The implications for everyone in ERCOT w/ an electric bill are huge. I'll translate the jargon in the PUC memo filed this week, summarize key points & describe market participants' reactions. 1/🧵 #txlege #energytwitter
As always, if I got something wrong or if I've misrepresented something (esp. if you're reading this & I've mis-characterized your position), please DM me & I'll correct it. I'm learning & appreciate the constructive criticisms. PUC memo is here:
interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/5237…
#txlege
The memo is from staff but is quite obviously reflective of Chairman Lake's position. The first thing in it is Operating Reserve Demand Curve (ORDC). This was created after the 2011 winter outages (and near misses that summer). It adds $ for generators in scarcity conditions.
Read 19 tweets
10 Dec
#ERCOT Board meeting today at 8:30CT. I'm particularly interested in discussions of Item 14 (on FERC/NERC winter storm report) & Item 18 on ancillary services.

Agenda & materials here. ercot.com/calendar/event…
Stream here ercot.com/committees/boa…
#txlege #txenergy
New board members are introduced: Bill Flores (former Congressman), Zin Smati and Bob Flexon (former energy executives), and John Swainson (former technology exec, most recently with Dell)
ercot.com/about/governan…
#txlege #txenergy
@ERCOT_ISO CEO Brad Jones makes an update, linked below. Lots of important material here incl. updates on securitization, weatherization, & the now famous Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy which projected shortages in similar conditions to last yr..
ercot.com/files/docs/202…
Read 26 tweets
8 Dec
Press briefing from @PUCTX Chair Lake & ERCOT CEO Brad Jones starts at 10CT.

There is no mention of this press conference on ERCOT or PUCT websites or social channels. @KXAN_News will stream it from their facebook page.
#txlege #energytwitter #txenergy

facebook.com/KXANnews
The last press release, tweet, and FB post from @ERCOT_ISO were each on three months ago. Doesn't inspire confidence about communications improvements in advance of winter weather.

ercot.com/news/releases
This press briefing has begun. I don't see it on KXAN website but you can watch here:

adminmonitor.com/tx/puct/press_…
Read 12 tweets
20 Nov
I’m deeply frustrated & concerned about the assessment of winter resource adequacy released by #ERCOT yesterday. *Everyone* agreed communication & planning needed improvement but yesterday demonstrated little has changed & it might be worse.
#txlege 1/🧵
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…
I was quoted in the @dallasnews on this assessment from ERCOT. “It’s a political document not reflective of reality,” I said and added that ERCOT’s quiet release of the report late Friday “speaks volumes.”

Allow me to explain. #energytwitter #txlege 2/18
The assessment released yesterday is not a reflection of reality.

Why? Let’s focus on two things in ERCOT's “extreme scenario:”

(1) Forecasted demand
(2) Thermal outages
#txlege 3/18
Read 19 tweets

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