Thread by @douglewinenergy

I’m deeply frustrated & concerned about the assessment of winter resource adequacy released by #ERCOT yesterday. *Everyone* agreed communication & planning needed improvement but yesterday demonstrated little has changed & it might be worse.
#txlege 1/🧵
dallasnews.com/news/politics/…

I was quoted in the @dallasnews on this assessment from ERCOT. “It’s a political document not reflective of reality,” I said and added that ERCOT’s quiet release of the report late Friday “speaks volumes.”

Allow me to explain. #energytwitter #txlege 2/18

The assessment released yesterday is not a reflection of reality.

Why? Let’s focus on two things in ERCOT's “extreme scenario:”

(1) Forecasted demand
(2) Thermal outages
#txlege 3/18

The SARA (Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy) is a confusing document. They could have made this easier to understand but I’ll try to explain.

In their *most extreme* scenario, ERCOT can only imagine 72.7GW of demand. We hit 76.8GW last February.
ercot.com/files/docs/202…

A&M researchers believe demand was actually 82GW. ERCOT puts the most extreme scenario at 12% less than that & 6% less than what *ERCOT* themselves said we used in Feb. This should be used in *at least* 1 scenario. We know it's possible. It happened!
5/18

https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1456284501236199426?s=20

Further, they can only imagine 11GW of thermal (gas/coal/nuke) outages, we *actually* had 31GW of thermal outages (!) in February. Again, this should be in at least 1 scenario.

So that’s why I said this Assessment is not reflective of reality. 6/18
puc.texas.gov/agency/resourc…

And it gets worse. ERCOT then assumes that in the most extreme scenarios we actually gain back 5.1GW of thermal generation, partially due to “Voluntary Natural Gas Industry Weatherization Efforts”

This is wishful thinking at best... (cont)
#txlege #txenergy 7/

No rules, no enforcement, no fines from the @txrrc just "voluntary efforts" from an industry that made $11b in 1 week, but sure, they probably winterized & voluntarily gave up those profits this winter, right?

ERCOT is counting *voluntary* efforts. 8/18
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

This kind of Resource Adequacy assessment is outdated & unhelpful. I want this to be a constructive criticism bc I think there are better ways for ERCOT to do this.

This report directly addresses ERCOT's planning & should be used to improve.
#txlege 9/18
esig.energy/wp-content/upl…

So those are the main reasons why this document is “not reflective of reality.” But something else bothers me about this: the politics.

Why release it late afternoon on the Friday before Thanksgiving?
#txlege #txenergy 10/18

Why not have a media briefing? ERCOT knows as well as anyone that every Texan cares about whether we have enough power for the winter.

I’m sure the media would’ve liked to ask some questions, right?
11/18

https://twitter.com/edward_klump/status/1461812648362881025?s=20

Wasn’t improved communications a major selling point of #SB3? I mean, they didn’t mandate weatherization of gas supply but at least communications would be better, right? Right?!

The communications from #ERCOT on this assessment doesn’t inspire confidence.
#winteriscoming 12/18

And speaking of improved communications in #SB3, what happened to the statewide power outage alert system? I honestly don’t know but it was section 1 of the bill. Is it ready? I hope so because there's a pretty good chance we're going to need it.
#txlege #energytwitter 13/18

And it may be worse still. ERCOT placed the SARA on the website & then removed it. Why?

Could be some innocent reason for this but looks like they were trying to wait till as late in the afternoon on Friday as possible even if it was ready earlier
14/18

https://twitter.com/AndrewDessler/status/1461780359360700422?s=20

This report came out the first week of November each of the 4 previous years. What accounts for the delays until the Friday before Thanksgiving? I don't know the answer to this but who was involved in the editing? What did they edit? Was the ERCOT Board involved?
#txlege 15/18

The ERCOT Board is now appointed by a selection committee appointed by Abbott, Patrick & Speaker Phelan. The 1st Board member chosen (and Chairman) by the selection committee gave $1.5m to Abbott and $350k to Patrick over the last 6 yrs. #txlege
16/18
cjtackett.medium.com/the-both-sides…

It’s also worth noting that an ERCOT Board member resigned last night right at the same time the assessment came out. Could be a coincidence. The stated reason was a conflict of interest which somehow the search committee, paid for by us, missed.

https://twitter.com/russellgold/status/1461874991759253506?s=20

This is too important to not get right. If conditions are like last year, or even close, there will very likely be outages. I want people to understand this so they can prepare & survive. 700+ lost their lives last February. Let’s not let it happen again
#WinterIsComing End🧵

Great summary of the same topic here by @erinmdouglas23, always expertly summarizing these difficult to understand topics.
#txlege

https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1462165119383871489?t=LCVFhzGN9d7DVf5_3Ch6Gg&s=19