My thoughts into #FederalReserve meeting..let's recap:
Last Fed Meeting:Nov 3rd-Fed announces tapering to begin (as expected)
Nov 22nd:Biden nominates Powell for another term
Nov 30th:Powell testifies in Congress and indicates "transitory" is gone&may accelerate taper (cont'd)
This 11/30 testimony was in the wake of new COVID wave (Omicron)&investors assumed Powell would take note of that (didn't)
Yes,there is a #dotplot coming today (last one September)Fed Fund Futures have already done the work (2-3 hikes in 2021)1st hike late spring '22 (cont'd)
since 11/3:we have seen 2yr yields move from low .40's to high .60's & 10yr yields from 1.60's to 1.40's (2/10 spread narrowing dramatically); we have also seen several high inflation prints (CPI/PPI),low jobless claims & unfortunately a major acceleration in COVID cases (cont'd)
What does this mean? I would expect Powell to fully acknowledge risks posed by new COVID variant & backtrack a bit on his 11/30 testimony while acknowledging recent inflation data; what the market has been indicating (for years now)is that it fears an unaccommodating Fed (cont'd)
& that rate hikes will undoubtedly cause the economy to slow(see 10year yield)-#stagflation if FED is indeed behind but bigger fear they may overshoot & the market loses confidence in their ability to control inflation;It should scare investors that a market < than (cont'd)
3% (SPY) 5-6% (QQQ) off all time highs is this freaked out;proves that the #FederalReserve has been &continues to be the main driver of liquidity in this market;it's been this way for 13 years (QE 1 Nov 2008) & I look forward to a time when bottom up research will matter again

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Danny Moses

Danny Moses Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!