🧵on $SIVB (thoughts on current situation)
1/ it may not have mattered in the end but I'm shocked that when $SIVB announced the losses in their securities book & subsequent capital raise, that the raise wasn't already subscribed; created their own bank run: "Capital Markets 101" 2/ I always talk about reading "10Q's and 10K's"; this exposure in $SIVB securities book was in plain sight & if forced to "mark to market", the losses would (did) exceed the equity capital at the bank; but I guess if the CEO sits on the Board of the San Fran #FED then all is ok

Thread on Japan
1/ Let me simplify the issues facing Japan #BOJ & why I believe people need to be paying attention: these are rough estimates:
*Japan's debt > $10 Trillion (in US terms) of which BOJ owns 40%+
*Japan Debt/GDP is >2.5x(largest of any developed nation)
@pboockvar 2/
*Japan is the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries (over $1 Trillion)
*Japan's Core CPI for January just came in at 4.2% (includes energy which is a big import for them) a 41 yr high
*Japan exports autos/auto parts/machinery/electronics etc & relies on China/US as buyers

1/ A few market thoughts and updated thoughts on $TSLA from a behavioral finance POV; #BOE #BOJ interventions are proving to be short-lived as the British 10yr Gilt (yields higher) and the $JPY (weaker) have both breached levels where intervention was announced/executed 2/ faith in Global Central Banks continues to wane as investors begin to underwrite these Banks as credits rather than limitless piggy banks; this "looking under the hood" leads me to one of my favorite topics, $TSLA, which has really never traded on fundamentals..but first

I rarely tweet "threads" on the markets but I feel compelled to at this moment; mainly so I can clear my own head but also b/c I hope by sharing my thoughts I may help some other investors; I would normally do this recording @OnTheTapePod but this is a stream of consciousness
1/ as bearish & prepared as we were at FrontPoint in 2006 we were shocked at the depths/reach/contagion of the financial crisis; not nearly as shocked as the regulators/govt but shocked how little they understood about the leverage in the system and how caught off guard they were
2/

Wanted to wait for the 10Q on $TSLA before commenting on the qtr; I'm sure 99% of people won't look through it but it always helps to clarify a few things; sec.gov/Archives/edgar… First thing that struck me off of the earnings report was "why would $TSLA convert #BTC to Fiat ($)"; that in and of itself should make you want to dig deeper; @PlainSite has a great thread on this but let's just say that unrestricted cash is a very small component of the reported $18.9Bln "cash"; growing and extending

My thoughts into #FederalReserve meeting..let's recap:
Last Fed Meeting:Nov 3rd-Fed announces tapering to begin (as expected)
Nov 22nd:Biden nominates Powell for another term
Nov 30th:Powell testifies in Congress and indicates "transitory" is gone&may accelerate taper (cont'd) This 11/30 testimony was in the wake of new COVID wave (Omicron)&investors assumed Powell would take note of that (didn't)
Yes,there is a #dotplot coming today (last one September)Fed Fund Futures have already done the work (2-3 hikes in 2021)1st hike late spring '22 (cont'd)