Thread by @Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of December 16th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.24 ± 0.63

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.45 ± 0.13
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.81 ± 0.32

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.38 ± 0.14
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.65 ± 0.17

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

The Hunter region: R_eff = 3.02 ± 1.40

Illawarra region: R_eff = 1.27 ± 0.38

Western New South Wales: R_eff = 1.07 ± 0.50

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Fri: 3484 2197—5044
Sat: 5027 2940—7831
Sun: 7265 3919—12189
Mon: 10497 5210—18896
Tue: 15080 6956—29336
Wed: 21675 9245—45465
Thu: 31063 12228—69972

Doubling time is 2.9 days.

Note that there was no LGA dataset released yesterday, so the regional breakdowns are more out of date than usual - three days behind the statewide figures.