Thread by @Chrisbilbo

VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic

VIC R_eff as of October 2nd with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.53 ± 0.09

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021…

#COVID19Vic

Expected numbers if the current trend continues:

day cases 68% range
Sun: 1591 1327—1863
Mon: 1739 1409—2100
Tue: 1896 1485—2367
Wed: 2068 1558—2644
Thu: 2246 1635—2952
Fri: 2433 1706—3288
Sat: 2631 1770—3655

Doubling time is 8.2 days.

#COVID19Vic

Note that these projections do not take into account upcoming easing of restrictions. If the trend changes as a result of easing, the projections will also change once this is reflected in case numbers, but not in advance.

Vaccination is the only way out of this lockdown. See where vaccines are available near you: covid19nearme.com.au/state/vic/vacc…. If you're already booked in, keep an eye out as more supply might mean you can move it up.

#Covid19Vic

I still think this is pessimistic right now, since I expect the grand final weekend surge is transient. The increase in case numbers is here to stay - people who got infected last weekend aren't going to magically not spread it - but the growth rate I expect will slow again.

If/when the growth rate does slow, it will take time for this to be reflected in my R_eff estimate, which smooths over many days of data, so I think it will be a bit pessimistic for a while.