Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update: Omicron will peak in the US in the third wave in January according to a consensus of 10 scientists we interviewed. 1/

So far Omicron is doubling every 2-4 days, extraordinarily fast. People with prior infections or have been vaccinated but not boosted are right in the path of the spread.

This makes the spread 2-3x as fast as Delta. 2/

Even with a limited understanding of the severity of Omicron, it feels like this implies some concerning news and some better news (it’s all relative at this point😕). 3/

Omicron is 3% of samples taken in the US, but is 12% in some parts of the country like New York. In Europe and the US, it appears to be fitter than Delta. 4/

For some period of time we live with both variants but eventually Omicron May have a binding advantage to the cells.

A majority of the scientists we spoke to see Omicron soon outcompeting Delta. Some see a twin pandemic. 5/

Doubling every 3 days is a little jarring. 100,000 cases at Christmas would turn into 400,000 cases by New Years’ Eve.

Holiday travel & family gatherings will be like gathering kindling together in a path during a blazing fire. 6/

Meanwhile large parts of the public are fatigued, unvaccinated & disbelieving.

Many will get only mild illness & don’t think it’s worth disrupting their lives. 7/

Our principal fear now is the ability of our hospitals to meet the overwhelming rush of cases in a short period.

Several states are telling me they are cancelling elective procedures and we haven’t even begun to see Omicron cases. 8/

Those who have been boosted with an mRNA vaccine, will have strong protection.

But by Christmas, at the current rate, less than 1/4 of the country will have been boosted. What we are witnessing in the UK will be worse here. 9/

Colleges, sports leagues and schools are already seeing outbreaks & are temporarily suspending. Offices that can are keeping people at home.

As hospitals fill, governors will come to grips with other stronger steps they need to take. Many won’t act until it’s too late. 10/

Policy reactions are hard when people’s different circumstances suggest they want a targeted response when in a pandemic, only a broad response will protect the onslaught to hospitals. 11/

In an election year too many governors are too slow to take tough policy responses. December & January are a time for proactive and unpopular actions. 12/

If there’s a blessing here, it’s that the quicker waves come at us, the quicker they peak & decline. Delta blew through in 2 months times. Most of the scientists think Omicron will rise & fall at least that quickly. Watching SA & the UK will help us know. 13/

If cases peak in the third week in January, hospitalizations peak weeks later. Some see a short but significant disruption.

With boosters, more rapid tests & a 90% effective oral anti-viral, the winter wave & a hospital crush could end up a short-lived challenge. 14/

Thee president and governors should square up with people on the significance of the challenge we face. It’s their job to ask of people whatever it takes to save lives & allow hospitals to operate. 15/

If I were communicating this challenge to the country, I would emphasize that whatever sacrifice is required will be short-lived & we will be able to get back to business, school, work & travel. 16/

It’s also time to get the tools— boosters, rapid tests & therapies— accelerated into the field.

Omicron requires Congress to come back together to pass $100 billion for free ubiquitous rapid tests, surveillance & additional vaccines for low & mid income countries.17/

Meanwhile, the reactionary Republican responses like that of Eric Schmidt in Missouri, who wants to end reporting of cases entirely; should be called out for what they are: ignorance on a lethal scale.18/

Scientists interviewed include: Osterholm, Agus, Offit, Hotez, Dean, Jetelina, Gounder, Wachter & Fitzpatrick.

Hear them & others with their full rundown on Omicron & 2022 Monday on @inthebubblepod.

end/

Third *week

First tweet in the thread should say “week” not “wave.”