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Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Dec 16, 2021

Omicron is here in @SanDiegoCounty. Over 25% of recent COVID (+) tests @UCSDHealth now appear likely to be this new variant (pending final sequencing)

Omicron rapidly overtook delta in south Africa, and we expect the same here
2/ @UCSDHealth will use sotrovimab (VIR-7831) for high risk patients with early Omicron infection based on in vitro studies predicting ↑ effectiveness compared to other mAbs in the setting of all the Omicron mutations (h/t Dr. Shira Abeles)
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/ Omicron may present with mild, cold-like symptoms, according to new UK data
cnbc.com/2021/12/16/omi…
4/ San Diego is in for a lot more breakthrough infections. Here’s what to do if you fall sick.
theatlantic.com/health/archive…

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More from @calonghurst

Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
1 Sep
💥 NEW DATA💥

1/ "Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Health System Workforce" published today in @NEJM details ↓ in vaccine effectiveness against INFECTION among @UCSDHealth employees - from 95%+ in the spring to 65% in July

👉🏽 nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
2/ Our contact tracing team (led by @DrLucyEHorton) found virutally all known exposures were in the household or community. Few @UCSDHealth employees (mediage age 39) required hospitalization, but each is out 10+ days, creating staffing challenges, as well as additional exposures
3/ Unpublished analysis of cases through 8/26 shows continued ↓ in vaccine effectiveness, with Pfizer at just 49% - one of the reasons that @UCSanDiego has an indoor masking mandate 😷
Read 6 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
26 Jul
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2021

I had hoped to be done with these when I wrote the last one ~100 days ago, but the rate of positive #COVID19 tests @UCSDHealth is back to almost 4%, near the winter surge peak. So here we go again...🧵
2/ Fortunately, the number of patients hospitalized with #COVID19 @UCSDHealth is still relatively low at 22, but the uptick is worrisome, particularly with @SanDiegoCounty hospitalizations >200 again for the first time since March
3/ Of course the most important reason we are not seeing more inpatients with #COVID19 is that some of these new cases are so-called breakthrough infections that are far less likely to be severe or require hospitalization
Read 15 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
16 Jan
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 16, 2021

Are we turning the corner on the surge? Read on to explore hospital, regional, and statewide data 📉

Plus vaccines, vaccines, and a puppy 🐶
2/ Some good news as case rate data @UCSDHealth is clearly declining this week.

This may be partly a result of the thousands of @UCSanDiego students returning after the holiday break

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…
3/ The 14-day rolling average of positive tests in @SanDiegoCounty and California also seem to have leveled off
Read 17 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
4 Jan
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 3, 2021

Happy new year #Twitterverse🎇

Lots to share in the first thread of 2021 🧵

Read on for some thoughts about hospitalization numbers, vaccine timing, and the predicted baby bust 🚼

And two small rewards at the end... 🐕
2/ @UCSDHealth has hit a temporary equilibrium with census relatively stable ~7 days. Today we have 127 inpatients hospitalized for #COVID19 including 40 in the ICU, 31 on mechanical ventilators, and 7 on ECMO circuits
3/ @SanDiegoCounty hospitalization data shows a similar plateau with 1,591 inpatients across multiple hospitals today and a 7-day rolling average of 1,573 according to @HASDIC data
Read 15 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
27 Jul 20
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 26, 2020

Let's talk about #COVID19 contact tracing...almost 27k #COVID19 cases in @SanDiegoCounty, and county staff can NOT keep up. Despite hiring >200 contact tracers, just 10% of cases are now investigated within 24 hours!
2/ Contact tracing works great for sexually transmitted infections, but does not scale well for a pandemic caused by a respiratory disease spread by airborne droplets. So what should we do? Hire more contact tracers?

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…
3/ Recent models show that "minimizing contact tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology, further enhanced effectiveness, with the potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions."

Read 7 tweets
Christopher A. Longhurst Profile picture
23 Jul 20
1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - July 23, 2020

@UCSDHealth is now caring for 51 inpatients with #COVID19 including 21 on vents and 5 on ECMO. These individuals come from all over southern California, particularly @SanDiegoCounty and @ImperialCntyCA

ImageImage
2/ In a bit of bright news, with just 16 positive PCR results in the last 24 hours, the 7 day rolling average @UCSDHealth decreased to ~21 positive tests/day. This rate of ~2.3% is now the lowest across @UofCAHealth

Image
3/ Unfortunately, @SanDiegoCounty hit two grim milestones yesterday with over 25k #COVID19 cases (+587) and over 500 deaths. San Diegans over 70 yo represent only 17% of the cases but 87% of the deaths, and nearly all had underlying medical conditions.

countynewscenter.com/county-covid-1…
Read 10 tweets

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