Thread by @calonghurst

1/ COVID (@UCSanDiego) Chronicles - Jan 3, 2021

Happy new year #Twitterverse🎇

Lots to share in the first thread of 2021 🧵

Read on for some thoughts about hospitalization numbers, vaccine timing, and the predicted baby bust 🚼

And two small rewards at the end... 🐕

2/ @UCSDHealth has hit a temporary equilibrium with census relatively stable ~7 days. Today we have 127 inpatients hospitalized for #COVID19 including 40 in the ICU, 31 on mechanical ventilators, and 7 on ECMO circuits

3/ @SanDiegoCounty hospitalization data shows a similar plateau with 1,591 inpatients across multiple hospitals today and a 7-day rolling average of 1,573 according to @HASDIC data

4/ Remember that current hospitalization represents infections that spread around Thanksgiving (!)

New #SarsCOV2 cases @UCSDHealth are at record highs, confirming that January will be complicated by a "surge on surge" effect, and possibly other factors...

5/ Some of these new #COVID19 cases may prove to be the more contagious UK variant (B.1.1.7) given that several samples have already been identified in @SanDiegoCounty

sandiegouniontribune.com/news/health/st…

6/ Identification of this more contagious #SarsCOV2 variant was the result of rapid collaboration between scientists at @UCSDHealth @scrippsresearch @CDCgov as described in this great thread from @K_G_Andersen

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1344825028370567169

7/ Vaccine timing decisions are critical. I have come to the same conclusion as @Bob_Wachter and @ashishkjha - we should consider delaying 2nd dose in favor of rapidly giving more 1st doses. @UofCAHealth leaders will discuss this week.

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1345771195732553733

8/ @UCSDHealth has administered ~8k #COVID19 vaccines to our healthcare employees and students (4,531 @pfizer and 3,429 @moderna_tx)

Unlike this @Forbes report, just 3% of @UCSDHealth employees have declined and 5% postponed vaccination so far

forbes.com/sites/tommybee…

9/ It has now been 42 weeks since the March 13th federal declaration of emergency. As a pediatrician, that means we are now post-term, and might begin to see the "COVID baby-bust" which predicted 300-500k fewer births in the US

brookings.edu/blog/up-front/…

10/ The #COVID19 baby bust is not (yet?) evident in the @UCSDHealth newborn census, where births have remained vigorous. Will recheck in a few months

Of course this is not necessarily representative of the entire population and could be a result of market shifts or other biases

11/ Some countries also observed fewer premature births last summer, which was attributed to COVID lockdowns

nytimes.com/2020/10/15/hea…

12/ Slicing @UCSDHealth data over a 2 year time period does not seem to show a reduction in preterm births (<35 weeks gestation) in our local data

Once again, this does not necessarily represent the entire population, and could be an artifact of market shifts or other biases

13/ With record high #COVID19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across the US, it is somewhat shocking to hear @WHO leaders share that #SarsCOV2 may "not necessarily be the big one." ⚠️⚠️⚠️

nytimes.com/2020/12/29/wor…

14/ On the bright side, there are a lot of things to look forward to in 2021...

💉 widespread vaccination, allowing

🏫 schools to re-open for in-person instruction, and

🧑‍⚕️healthcare workers to take a well-deserved break!

15/ Until next time, enjoy this photo of the puppies born at Casa Longhurst over the holidays! 🐕