As for doubly vaccinated Canadians 40 and older, especially if your last shot was more than 6 months ago, here are your risks, assuming that vaccine protection from severe outcomes has fallen from 90% to 70% with Omicron.
1 in 2,623 double-vaxxed Canadians in their 40s will die of COVID-19. 1 in 725 will end up in ICU. 1 in 159 will be hospitalized.
The odds are much better than if you're unvaccinated, but we CANNOT allow hundreds of thousands of infections to happen over the next month.
1 in 2,623 double-vaxxed Canadians in their 40s will die of COVID-19. 1 in 725 will end up in ICU. 1 in 159 will be hospitalized.
The odds are much better than if you're unvaccinated, but we CANNOT allow hundreds of thousands of infections to happen over the next month.
1 in 786 double-vaxxed Canadians in their 50s will die of COVID-19. 1 in 278 will end up in ICU. 1 in 76 will be hospitalized.
The odds are much better than if you're unvaccinated, but we CANNOT allow hundreds of thousands of infections to happen over the next month.
1 in 234 double-vaxxed Canadians in their 60s will die of COVID-19. 1 in 101 will end up in ICU. 1 in 38 will be hospitalized.
The odds are much better than if you're unvaccinated, but we CANNOT allow hundreds of thousands of infections to happen over the next month.
1 in 70 double-vaxxed Canadians in their 70s will die of COVID-19. 1 in 49 will end up in ICU. 1 in 20 will be hospitalized.
This is why we ALL have to slow spread.
Finally, 1 in 19 double-vaxxed Canadians 80 and older will die of COVID-19. 1 in 152 will end up in ICU. 1 in 12 will be hospitalized.
If you're wondering why I'm saying hundreds of thousands of infections in the next month, how many were reported today. 9,123. Multiply that by 30 days. That's 274,000 infections. And Omicron is just starting.
There have been 1,867,562 reported cases in the entire epidemic in Canada to date--0.5% of them reported today. Multiply that by 30 days (assuming our daily numbers do NOT go up fast for the next 2 weeks, which is highly unlikely), and we'll have 15% of all our cases in 1 month.
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Here's are estimates of severe BREAKTHROUGH COVID-19 outcomes, by age group, in Canada or comparable OECD countries.
Remember, risk of these outcomes are 7-9X higher in UNVACCINATED people.
These are based on the age-specific OECD infection fatality rates for Alpha (so quite conservative), and assume that vaccine protection vs severe outcomes in double-vaxxed people has dropped from 90% to 70% for Omicron, as per recent South African reports.
They're estimates, but remember that Alpha was "milder" than Delta, and that monoclonal antibodies we use for treatment also look like they're taking a big hit with Omicron. These estimates may be revised up/down, but probably not by huge amounts. They're decent ballparks.
Omicron may reduce vaccine protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes from 90% to 70%.
If true, this could result in more than 100,000 breakthrough deaths in Canada if everyone is infected.
Get boosted ASAP. Not this weekend. As fast as you can, especially people 40+.
Most of us cannot understand how fast Omicron cases are growing. They will double every 3 days once Omicron is dominant--which will be by the end of this week in Ontario.
Don't just get your booster. IMMEDIATELY start taking precautions to reduce risk of exposure and spread.
And if you're UNVACCINATED, I beseech you--get your first dose immediately. Hospitalizations and deaths will rise exponentially after cases.
If you're 40 and older and unvaccinated, you have a 1 in 17 chance of hospitalization with COVID. You have no time left to wait. PLEASE.
The most recent age-specific vaccination data from @GovCanHealth indicated the Canadian regions with the highest risk for future ICU admissions, deaths and hospitalizations are, in order, AB, ON, NWT, YK, SK, BC, NB, QC, NS, MB, NL, NUV, PEI.
SK 1st dose vax has really sped up.
@GovCanHealth However, even though ON is now a major concern due to slow vaccination in people 50+, I couldn't figure out how to identify the ON regions at greatest risk because provincially reported vaccination rates are so much higher than national rates, especially in older age groups.
Hang on. I'm pulling out the regional data for vax rates among people 80+ in ON PHUs, together with estimated numbers of deaths that will result when unvaccinated people 80+ are infected with SARS-CoV-2. Not if. When.
For those trying to find the hesitancy and vaccine uptake spreadsheets I've been compiling, including the lists of highest priority groups and regions for outreach, I'm linking them here, and pinning this thread to my profile.
Haven't got them up on a website yet...sorry.
1. Highest priority demographic groups and regions, based on the Jan-April Canadian Community Health Measures survey
The main tab to look at is called: "Highest Priority 50+ Demographics and Regions".
The data on that tab are sorted from highest to lowest priority, based on risk of death as a percentage of the total number of people in that demographic. It gives a sense of the INTENSITY of the problem in each demographic group and region.