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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
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16 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Omicron may reduce vaccine protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes from 90% to 70%.

If true, this could result in more than 100,000 breakthrough deaths in Canada if everyone is infected.

Get boosted ASAP. Not this weekend. As fast as you can, especially people 40+.
Most of us cannot understand how fast Omicron cases are growing. They will double every 3 days once Omicron is dominant--which will be by the end of this week in Ontario.

Don't just get your booster. IMMEDIATELY start taking precautions to reduce risk of exposure and spread.
And if you're UNVACCINATED, I beseech you--get your first dose immediately. Hospitalizations and deaths will rise exponentially after cases.

If you're 40 and older and unvaccinated, you have a 1 in 17 chance of hospitalization with COVID. You have no time left to wait. PLEASE.

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
18 Dec
Unvaccinated Canadians 40+, I am DESPERATELY worried about you.

1 in 18 of you who get COVID-19 will be hospitalized. 1 in 59 will end up in ICU. 1 in 78 will die.

Nearly 24,000 of you will die before this epidemic ends. 32,000 will end up in ICU. 107,000 will be hospitalized.
You can check your personal risk in your province and health region at the link here.

I beg you. I care about your life--it matters a lot. The people who love you care about you. Please, please, PLEASE protect yourselves.

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
As for doubly vaccinated Canadians 40 and older, especially if your last shot was more than 6 months ago, here are your risks, assuming that vaccine protection from severe outcomes has fallen from 90% to 70% with Omicron.
Read 11 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
13 Nov
OK. Have finally found age-specific vax rates for Ontario PHUs that more closely resemble national data for ON than those reported provincially.

This really changes our understanding of which Cdn regions are at greatest risk of future deaths, ICU admissions, hospitalizations.
🧵
The most recent age-specific vaccination data from @GovCanHealth indicated the Canadian regions with the highest risk for future ICU admissions, deaths and hospitalizations are, in order, AB, ON, NWT, YK, SK, BC, NB, QC, NS, MB, NL, NUV, PEI.

SK 1st dose vax has really sped up.
@GovCanHealth However, even though ON is now a major concern due to slow vaccination in people 50+, I couldn't figure out how to identify the ON regions at greatest risk because provincially reported vaccination rates are so much higher than national rates, especially in older age groups.
Read 55 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Nov
A huge concern that cases are rising so quickly among people 80+.

In Ontario, ~10% of people 80 and older remain completely unvaccinated.

About 1 in 5 unvaxxed people 80+ will die if they contract COVID-19.

ON has one of worst vax rates in the country for people 80+.
More than 17,000 unvaccinated people in Ontario can still die from COVID-19. MANY will be in their 80s.

The HUGE gap in vaccination among people 80+ has been known for MANY, MANY months.

Hang on. I'm pulling out the regional data for vax rates among people 80+ in ON PHUs, together with estimated numbers of deaths that will result when unvaccinated people 80+ are infected with SARS-CoV-2. Not if. When.
Read 24 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
19 Oct
As of Oct 9, 2021

COVID-19 vaccinations have saved ~432,600 lives in Canada

BUT

If all unvaccinated people are exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in the next year, here's what could still happen:

33,300 deaths
47,200 ICU admissions
174,400 hospitalizations

Regional numbers below
Here's what can still happen in Newfoundland and Labrador, based on numbers of people who still don't have their COVID-19 vaccine.

384 deaths
427 ICU admissions
1,646 hospitalizations

Share this with those you love who remain unvaccinated. Help them understand what's at risk.
Here's what can still happen in Prince Edward Island, based on numbers of people who still don't have their COVID-19 vaccine.

31 deaths
86 ICU admissions
281 hospitalizations

Share this with those you love who remain unvaccinated. Help them understand what's at risk.
Read 15 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
16 Oct
For those trying to find the hesitancy and vaccine uptake spreadsheets I've been compiling, including the lists of highest priority groups and regions for outreach, I'm linking them here, and pinning this thread to my profile.

Haven't got them up on a website yet...sorry.
1. Highest priority demographic groups and regions, based on the Jan-April Canadian Community Health Measures survey

The main tab to look at is called: "Highest Priority 50+ Demographics and Regions".

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
The data on that tab are sorted from highest to lowest priority, based on risk of death as a percentage of the total number of people in that demographic. It gives a sense of the INTENSITY of the problem in each demographic group and region.
Read 4 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
25 Sep
Here is a spreadsheet with regional breakdowns of:

1) Lives in Canada saved by COVID-19 vaccination
2) Estimated *future* COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions among unvaccinated people in Canada

Based on data for week Sep 18, 2021

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
For provinces from QC west I've provided data for every public health region. I haven't finished public health regional analyses yet for Atlantic Canada and the Territories, but wanted to share this now for people in SK and AB who need the data ASAP.
Data for each of the Atlantic provinces, Nunavut, NWT and Yukon are included--just not broken down yet by public health region.

These data are intended for people who want to help others understand how many lives vaccination has already likely saved. You can use them freely.
Read 74 tweets

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