Lets talk about why we'll soon see an uncoupling of infections and hospitalizations
No, its not because Omicron is "mild"
I'm not sure it is
Its because Omicron has so much immune evasion
That we'll see a change in who gets infected
Thread
No, its not because Omicron is "mild"
I'm not sure it is
Its because Omicron has so much immune evasion
That we'll see a change in who gets infected
Thread
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1471977182155182084
How to think about it
We know among unvaccinated
About 5% of infected folks get hospitalized
Among vaccinated
About 0.5%
Throughout the pandemic (including delta wave), most infections were among unvaccinated
So hospitalization rates have been about 5% of cases
We know among unvaccinated
About 5% of infected folks get hospitalized
Among vaccinated
About 0.5%
Throughout the pandemic (including delta wave), most infections were among unvaccinated
So hospitalization rates have been about 5% of cases
Omicron is different
It'll cause many more infections among 2-shot vaxxed folks
So we'll see large increases in infections in that crowd
So as cases spike
Rate of hospitalization will not spike to the same degree
Because many of the cases will be of vaccinated folks
3/5
It'll cause many more infections among 2-shot vaxxed folks
So we'll see large increases in infections in that crowd
So as cases spike
Rate of hospitalization will not spike to the same degree
Because many of the cases will be of vaccinated folks
3/5
But let's be clear on a few things:
1. We'll still see a rise in hospitalizations -- largely from unvaccinated but definitely some in un-boosted high-risk adults
2. Long COVID. Always a concern but appears far less common and less serious among vaccinated people
4/5
1. We'll still see a rise in hospitalizations -- largely from unvaccinated but definitely some in un-boosted high-risk adults
2. Long COVID. Always a concern but appears far less common and less serious among vaccinated people
4/5
This is why we should pay less attention to case counts in Omicron wave
And pay close attention to hospitalizations, deaths
And best way to prevent those?
Get high risk folks boosted and using good public health measures (high quality masks, testing, ventilation, etc.)
Fin
And pay close attention to hospitalizations, deaths
And best way to prevent those?
Get high risk folks boosted and using good public health measures (high quality masks, testing, ventilation, etc.)
Fin
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