Labour strategy in N. Shropshire

It was clear Labour & LibDems split the focus with Labour on Bexley & LibDems on Shropshire.

But unlike some here who discovered electoral politics last week now confidently condemning Labour...have a think about the actual mechanics of this...
1/

Anyone with any sense could see what Labour was doing:

a. Promotion of the candidate from LP HQ was at a bare minimum
b. Labour MPs were openly musing on Labour’s chances being less than LibDems
c. Virtually no Labour MPs visited the seat (we’ll come to the exceptions later)
2/
But what about the Local Association?

Now all those angry PA types condemning Labour actually THINK about what being a local activist means..
You spend your life in places like Shropshire where Labour NEVER wins, you push leaflets, get shouted at for zero reward for decades..
3/ Elections are what you live for.
& a by-election is the FA Cup final of elections.
Except Shropshire isn’t Arsenal – its like, well, the Shrewsbury getting to the cup final
This was Labour’s only chance EVER
This is literally what local activists spend their lives waiting for.
4/
This is really really hard for them.

Many understood.
Some “played the game”, went thru the motions to ensure the young candidate wasn’t left alone.
A few did their best.
The Labour candidate wanted to at least "put on a good show" to get a shot at another constituency.
5/

At NO POINT in the campaign did the National Labour Party attempt to get in the LibDems way.

For form’s sake & to ensure Labour didn’t lose its deposit and finished above the RefUK a couple of MPs made late visits – but who?
6/

They sent Angela Rayner to firm up the left wing vote.

You don’t send Angela Rayner to a place like North Shropshire to stop Labour centerists switching to LibDems…you send Rayner to shore up left wing Labour voters or working class voters who were thinking of abstaining.
Would I like "stand downs" in marginal seats by Labour or LibDems next election?

YES!

But its more difficult than people think.
Far more difficult.

But here's the thing...
So called progressives mouthing off Labour for not immediately & completely standing down will make future cooperation harder, not easier.

While "socialists" ridiculing Starmer for Labour's low vote in North Shropshire make inter-party cooperation even less likely.

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More from @nicktolhurst

17 Dec
Have to be honest I thought the 2 most likely outcomes in Shropshire were
1. Conservative win
2. Tight LibDem win

The fact LibDems got such a large majority in a very Leave seat means that Brexit is less of an issue now than I thought it was.

The Tory Brexit bonus has gone.
The by-election wasn't fought on Brexit.
And yet such a Leave set deserted the Tories for LibDems.
There's a lesson here:
The coalition for better governance is already here and their Brexit vote 5 years ago is not going to stop many of them voting for it.
Don't want to go overboard but this means if this continues, & Labour/LibDem continue their present EU policies *maybe* my timescale of rejoining the SIngle market (in whatever form) could be possible already in next parliament.
Not certain...but possible.
Read 5 tweets
16 Dec
+UPDATE+

At least 4 premier league clubs (including Leicester & Tottenham) in "crisis talks" with the FA on the future of League over the next 4 weeks.

Mass postponments, fixture pile-ups & severe crowd restrictions are all being discussed.
The latest match to be postponed is now Leicester v Spurs.

Its clear the fixture schedule now cannot hold with more postponements expected within the next few days.

The entire football season is now in doubt.
One of the suggestions up for discussion is " temporary Premier League lockdown" over the Christmas period as Omicron surges through the country.

This would however put fixture completion for some clubs in doubt by the end of May.
Read 4 tweets
13 Dec
I note a lot of center-left/remainers seem to have this constant fear that if Boris Johnson goes his replacement might be better and so win the next election.

This is the wrong way of looking at it for 3 reasons…
1. It’s a simple rule but always valid:
You should never wish bad government on your own country.

It doesn’t make sense and even if you think it’s “worth” it to win the next election politics often doesn’t like that and bad governance often just merely leads to worse outcomes.
2. Boris = British exceptionalism = Brexit

All 3 are the same.
Even a good performer as next Tory prime minister won’t be able to play this card(s) the same way.
They simply can’t.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
Conservative MP Richard Fuller is a national security risk.
Fuller is believed to be paid up to £25 000 a month by firms close to the Chinese and Russian govts that are carrying out ethnic military policies.

In the Chinese Case - genocide of the Uyghur people.
Fuller is now believed to earn the vast majority of his income from
outside parliament with companies linked to Asian military regimes including China.
Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
Football:

The earliest possible date for Spurs rearranged Rennes tie is 18th December.
The tie must be completed by 1st January. In this 14 day window Spurs have 5 games already.

So either Spurs must forfeit their place in Europa Conference League..or play 6 games in 14 days.
What’s more the only possible dates not both immediately preceding or succeeding a day of another spurs game is…Christmas eve - Friday 24th December or the 30th December.

In both cases involving 3 games in 4 days.

Be interesting to see how this situation is resolved…
But a problem.

Like most European countries Christmas eve in France is more important than in UK where Christmas Day is priority.

Also ligue 1 is on it’s winter break - it seems unlikely UEFA could force a club to play on this day - so 30th December seems only date possible.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson to appoint Gisela Stuart as his “new civil service commissioner”.
According to a number of media outlets including the Mirror.

More to follow.
Civil service commissioners most important roles are in civil service recruitment.

The appointment is clearly meant to swing civil service recruitment towards more brexity appointments.
Read 5 tweets

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