I note a lot of center-left/remainers seem to have this constant fear that if Boris Johnson goes his replacement might be better and so win the next election.

This is the wrong way of looking at it for 3 reasons…
1. It’s a simple rule but always valid:
You should never wish bad government on your own country.

It doesn’t make sense and even if you think it’s “worth” it to win the next election politics often doesn’t like that and bad governance often just merely leads to worse outcomes.
2. Boris = British exceptionalism = Brexit

All 3 are the same.
Even a good performer as next Tory prime minister won’t be able to play this card(s) the same way.
They simply can’t.
3. Connected to above, if a Tory PM emerged who was better, more rational towards Europe this is good for pro European & rational voters as “it moves the window” for debate.

It enables the public debate to accelerate along the “how close a relationship with EU do we want?” line.

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More from @nicktolhurst

12 Dec
Conservative MP Richard Fuller is a national security risk.
Fuller is believed to be paid up to £25 000 a month by firms close to the Chinese and Russian govts that are carrying out ethnic military policies.

In the Chinese Case - genocide of the Uyghur people.
Fuller is now believed to earn the vast majority of his income from
outside parliament with companies linked to Asian military regimes including China.
Read 7 tweets
10 Dec
Football:

The earliest possible date for Spurs rearranged Rennes tie is 18th December.
The tie must be completed by 1st January. In this 14 day window Spurs have 5 games already.

So either Spurs must forfeit their place in Europa Conference League..or play 6 games in 14 days.
What’s more the only possible dates not both immediately preceding or succeeding a day of another spurs game is…Christmas eve - Friday 24th December or the 30th December.

In both cases involving 3 games in 4 days.

Be interesting to see how this situation is resolved…
But a problem.

Like most European countries Christmas eve in France is more important than in UK where Christmas Day is priority.

Also ligue 1 is on it’s winter break - it seems unlikely UEFA could force a club to play on this day - so 30th December seems only date possible.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson to appoint Gisela Stuart as his “new civil service commissioner”.
According to a number of media outlets including the Mirror.

More to follow.
Civil service commissioners most important roles are in civil service recruitment.

The appointment is clearly meant to swing civil service recruitment towards more brexity appointments.
Read 5 tweets
6 Dec
So #NorthShropshire

How should I vote?
It depends largely on what you think is happening to the Conservative vote.

1. Low turnout - which in theory brings Labour into play who were 2nd last time
2. Tories Switching to LibDems

But the question you need to answer is..
“Is the low turnout of Tory voters big enough to bring Labour in?”

Other people may disagree but my view is - no it isn’t here.

To take the seat you need to get actual “vote switching” and in North Shropshire that’s far easier for LibDems to achieve.

So next question is..
If plenty of Tories switch to LibDems can Labour vote tactically too?

This is why LibDems sacrificed a strong presence in Old Bexley - to get support from Labour to see is this cooperation can work.

In other words theres more riding on North Shropshire than just a by-election…
Read 7 tweets
3 Dec
+UPDATE+

Conservatives retain the seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup - but Conservative votes collapses by 2 thirds from what it was in 2019.

Majority slashed from 19 000 to just 4 400 - the 2nd lowest Tory majority in the constituency’s history.
While from the start it looked extremely unlikely the seat would go labour - it has never voted anything but Tory and was one of strongest pro Leave areas in London - the Tory vote was so low that had Labour managed to switch just 2 300 votes the seat would have flipped.
Turnout low for all parties which was to be expected in a non marginal by election in winter - tho interestingly not for the far right RefUK party which could be an problem interesting problem if this holds up in London seats at next the General election.
Read 6 tweets
1 Dec
Britain in 2016 was a country that saw a loss of sovereignty over its:

1. Data to US tech firms
2. Utilities to foreign private firms
3. Property to tax haven based investors
4. Football clubs to foreign oligarchs/Arab govts

…and decided to punish itself & Europeans for it.
Theres nothing wrong with resisting aspects of globalisation or the way modern societies operate.

There is even nothing wrong with questioning the EU.

But literally nothing since 2016 has involved greater sovereignty for the British people.
Indeed much influence has been lost.
This realisation will take time to sink through.

Brexit was a culture war - problem is it’s also clearly a national humiliation.

And while people can admit they were wrong in some things, admitting complicity in a self harming national humiliation is very, very hard to do.
Read 5 tweets

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