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Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

6 Dec

So #NorthShropshire

How should I vote?
It depends largely on what you think is happening to the Conservative vote.

1. Low turnout - which in theory brings Labour into play who were 2nd last time
2. Tories Switching to LibDems

But the question you need to answer is..

“Is the low turnout of Tory voters big enough to bring Labour in?”

Other people may disagree but my view is - no it isn’t here.

To take the seat you need to get actual “vote switching” and in North Shropshire that’s far easier for LibDems to achieve.

So next question is..

If plenty of Tories switch to LibDems can Labour vote tactically too?

This is why LibDems sacrificed a strong presence in Old Bexley - to get support from Labour to see is this cooperation can work.

In other words theres more riding on North Shropshire than just a by-election…

Read 7 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

3 Dec

+UPDATE+

Conservatives retain the seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup - but Conservative votes collapses by 2 thirds from what it was in 2019.

Majority slashed from 19 000 to just 4 400 - the 2nd lowest Tory majority in the constituency’s history.

While from the start it looked extremely unlikely the seat would go labour - it has never voted anything but Tory and was one of strongest pro Leave areas in London - the Tory vote was so low that had Labour managed to switch just 2 300 votes the seat would have flipped.

Turnout low for all parties which was to be expected in a non marginal by election in winter - tho interestingly not for the far right RefUK party which could be an problem interesting problem if this holds up in London seats at next the General election.

Read 6 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

1 Dec

Britain in 2016 was a country that saw a loss of sovereignty over its:

1. Data to US tech firms
2. Utilities to foreign private firms
3. Property to tax haven based investors
4. Football clubs to foreign oligarchs/Arab govts

…and decided to punish itself & Europeans for it.

Theres nothing wrong with resisting aspects of globalisation or the way modern societies operate.

There is even nothing wrong with questioning the EU.

But literally nothing since 2016 has involved greater sovereignty for the British people.
Indeed much influence has been lost.

This realisation will take time to sink through.

Brexit was a culture war - problem is it’s also clearly a national humiliation.

And while people can admit they were wrong in some things, admitting complicity in a self harming national humiliation is very, very hard to do.

Read 5 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

26 Nov

2032:

“Now Europe has regained perspective & pragmatism, it makes sense for the UK to play a leading role in the West’s biggest trade bloc…we can now leave the events of 2016-19, when members of the old guard Brussels elite forced brexit on UK, where they belong - in the past.”

Commenting on the “revised position” on discussions to rejoin EU as an “associated member” the new Conservative leader - Quentin Hogg - expressed optimism that “Europe had come round to Britain’s way of thinking in so many areas that it made sense to ‘firm up’ the relationship.”

Lord Henley also expressed optimism “Europe had learnt the lessons of history”.

Recovering at home after gout surgery, Lord Henley & his young wife Jennifer Cole - daughter of journalist Harry Cole - welcomed the news as vindication of his “hard Britain strategy” of 2019-2022.

Read 6 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

19 Nov

I know a few people disagree with me on this but the Tory party narrative of:

“The Europeans aren’t letting us do Brexit right”

…has a very limited shelf life.

As it’s appeal to leave voters depends on them gradually understanding that Brexit wasn’t “done right” in 1st place.

Clearly there’s some leave voters who like “everything is Europe’s fault”…but for many leave voters Brexit was about “the UK not needing Europe”.

It wasn’t supposed to be about a UK govt continually whining that “Europe is stopping us”.

This is weakness - not independence.

At a certain point Boris Johnson will have to “declare Brexit victory” or sound like a defeated leader of an oppressed people.

This may have worked in 2018, but for leave voters if Brexit isn’t about British strength what is it about?

Read 5 tweets

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

@nicktolhurst

15 Nov

2022 will be a very different year for the UK politically.

The 1st Brexit deal anniversary will pass with very few Leavers celebrating. This mightn’t seem important but it really is.

We now move to the next stage:

The new status quo - the dull disappointing post-Brexit era.

If the opposition parties can avoid the various culture war traps then politics will return (as it’s already started doing so with the corruption issue) with the normal politics of competence & trust.

It’s vital the “European question” is framed thru this rather than leading it.

In other words:

Lab/LibDems should frame the debate around:

“Who is able to get a better deal with Europe, a better trading & political relationship?”

This might seem a silly question for remain voters but for “swing leave voters” this is the door they need to 1st go through…

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