I actually think you were right, and so are the dozens of replies to me that "people" will relax once they find out it is no more harmful than the flu.
It's all about blue state politicians ("Karens"). Will they call off their "control" to "stop the spread" to "protect health" all while "following the science?"
3/9
Will Blue Karens say it ok that the US is setting new daily case records, and hospitalizations are rising to new records in the Northeast and upper Midwest, as these charts show?
Blue Karens were overwhelmingly elected by blue voters that WANT RESTRICTIONS and LOCKDOWNS when cases rise.
"Red Rons" were elected by red voters that do not restrictions/lockdowns ever again. And they will never get them again.
5/9
Chart of office usage.
Red Texas, with "Rons" in charge, is above 50%, because they want back in the office.
Blue cities, with "Karens" in charge, are not above 35%, because they don't want back in the office.
The big Karen, Di Blasio, scared away subway riders.
6/9
Overall, the public is ready to get back to normal. They are flying at pre-pandemic levels and went in droves to see spiderman in theaters this weekend.
No one is afraid.
7/9
But this might actually be the problem!
Blue Karens can restrict movement/ability to work but that will not stop us buying stuff (Amazon boxes). Blue Karens restrictions will just impact/slow the supply chain.
This is fixed with higher prices, read more inflation.
8/9
This is big problem for markets.
The Fed cannot print into a decline because inflation now exists, something that was not an issue the last 13-years (back to 2008).
If they do print, and pump inflation higher, they wreck the Democratic Party.
Biden, Di Blasio, Adams, Lightfoot, Witmer, Pritzker, Newsome, Fauci ... all the Blue Karens ... say in unison this is endemic and nothing but the flu. Ignore the cases and hospitalizations and live your life.
I wish they would, but do not expect it.
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An update on the biggest story no one is talking about (at least in the US)
Through Dec 19, only 59% of European natural gas storages are filled. The labels show the % of storage filled at similar points in past years is closer to 77% on average.
59% is a 10-year low.
2/5
As the chart below shows, the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is down considerably.
3/5
In the last several days flows have essentially hit zero.
Manchin has cited a range of reasons for Democrats to not forge ahead with their ambitious package since the summer, urging a "strategic pause" since August.
Exactly one year ago TSLA was added to the S&P 500.
Studies show that you should buy the stock getting kicked out, as all the bad news is in the price, and sell the stock going in, as all the good news is in the price.
This idea worked again.
2/6
Nancy Pelosi's husband Paul BOT TLSA options two days after it was added to the S&P 500.
Paul Pelosi bought on Dec. 22. [2020]. ... 25 call options strike of $500 expiring on 3/18/22. barrons.com/articles/nancy…
3/6
Here is a chart of the TLSA 500 calls expiring on March 18, 2022.
He paid about $257 for each option on 12/22/20.
By mid-May they were down 50%. Today that position is up 71%.
Citigroup Inc., Carlyle Group Inc., Millennium Management and Citadel, Ken Griffin’s hedge-fund firm, are allowing remote work through the holiday in response to the latest rise in infections.