New Covid polling by @kekstcnc in @thesundaytimes - all fieldwork after the PM’s press conference.

Despite the spread of omicron, the public remain opposed to pub/restaurant closures, any ban on Christmas mixing - and are split on rule of six. thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ba… (1/6)
People have become slightly more likely to want the government to prioritise curbing Covid over protecting the economy since November, but the gap remains much smaller than during the rest of the pandemic. (2/6)
Despite warnings, the public have become *more* likely to think the NHS will cope well this winter compared to a month ago.

Our focus groups suggest this is because the idea the variant is more mild has cut through.

This finding I imagine would worry Chris Whitty. (3/6)
Just 15% of people say the government is under-playing omicron, 28% that it’s over-hyping, and 43% that it has got the balance right at the moment.

Broadly it seems people are happy with the govt’s current approach, as I say in the piece. 👇(4/6)
What strikes me overall is the lack of change amongst the public since omicron has arrived and spread. For some - especially the scientists - that’s potentially cause for great concern about how seriously the public are taking it. For others, it will be welcome news. (5/6)
This could of course change fast - the lesson of the pandemic has been that the public can be led by government. But at the moment the public are becoming more cautious, but are broadly supportive of the current balance. Full piece by @tomhcalver here: thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ba… 6/6

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More from @jamesjohnson252

17 Dec
On @LBC in 10 mins talking about one of the biggest by-election moments ever with @NickFerrariLBC. Could be a busy day this…
Popping up on @BBCNews shortly re the by-election
Read 5 tweets
6 Nov
Until there is a credible alternative to the Conservatives, people will not abandon Boris Johnson in droves.

New @JLPartnersPolls in today’s @DailyMailUK:

- Tories lead by 6 points on competence, no change since July

- Labour ahead by only 2 points on ‘shares your values’

(1)
- Labour seen as more divided by 32 points, up 6 since July

- Who is doing better job overall at the moment? Boris 41%, Keir 27%

- Tories seen as more out of touch than Labour by 15 points, but no change since July

- Awareness of scandal much lower than Barnard Castle

(2/3)
The polls might narrow and fluctuate but until voters believe that alternative exists, they won’t change their minds for the long-term.

Sleaze could really damage Tories *once* they lose trust of electorate on another issue (see Black Wednesday), but isn’t happening yet.

(3/3)
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
NEW @KekstCNC Covid polling in @thesundaytimes

Covid attitudes have shifted.

The number of people who want the government to limit the spread of the virus at all costs has fallen, while protecting the economy (even if it means more virus) has become more prominent. (1/5)
In April 2020, protecting the economy - even if it meant more hospitalisations and deaths - was a very niche, near-heretical opinion.

Now, with the vaccine rollout and the cost of living biting, the gap between the two priorities has fallen from 61 points to just 8. (2/5)
There are other signs of a turn against lockdown. We asked people which restrictions they would support if hospitals came under significant pressure in the winter.

Only 16% backed a return to school and shop closures - and no other hard measure got more than 50% backing. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
7 May
*NEW: @JLPartnersPolls on why people voted the way they did, for @Channel4News*

The top reason given for not voting Labour on Thursday was Keir Starmer’s leadership. This was followed by not agreeing with Labour’s policies, or worrying that they did not have any at all. (1/9)
A representative sample of 1,741 adults in England were asked just before & on Polling Day the main reason they voted.

Asked why they did not vote Labour, the top words written were “policies”, “Starmer”, “leader” and people saying they “don’t trust” the party. (2/9)
Concerns about Starmer focus on him being weak, opportunistic, and not standing for anything.

Here is a representative selection of the things they said. (3/9)
Read 9 tweets
30 Mar
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: Red Wall tracker

The Conservatives have re-taken the lead in the Red Wall, now just 1 point off their 2019 vote.

The main reason given for not voting Labour is “It is unclear what Keir Starmer stands for”. (1/15)
As before, we polled a representative sample of voters on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 and 2016 vote in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour in 2019.

The 6-point advantage Labour had in November has changed into a 4-point Tory lead. (2/15)
That means it’s CON 47% (+6 on Nov), LAB 43% (-4).

In 2019 the Tories led by 9 points, so this still means a small swing to Labour.

On these numbers, Labour is projected to gain 18 of 45 seats. But CON hold 27, compared to a projected loss of all but 9 seats last time. (3/15)
Read 19 tweets
3 Dec 20
NEW @JLPartnersPolls for @Channel4News: the 1st poll of the Red Wall since the Election

In 2019 the Tories led by 48% to 39%. Now Labour leads by 47% to 41%

On a uniform swing, that means the Conservatives would lose 36 of the 45 seats we polled (1/11)

channel4.com/news/exclusive…
We polled a representative sample-on gender, age, education, social grade, 2019 vote and 2016 vote-in 45 seats in the North/Midlands that the Tories won from Labour at the Election.

It shows that, a year on, there are signs the Red Wall is going cold on the Conservatives. (2/11)
The Conservative vote share – 41% - looks respectable, but small margins matter in many of these tight seats.

The Party is only retaining 70% of its 2019 vote – with almost 1 in 10 switching direct to Labour, and around 1 in 6 saying they don’t know how they would vote (3/11) Image
Read 11 tweets

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