The key to understanding @DavidGHFrost is ambition & self-regard.
Those can be positives, or negatives, depending on how they’re used.
He wants to reach the top. He has for decades. And he believes he’s capable of pretty much anything.
A 🧵/1.
Those can be positives, or negatives, depending on how they’re used.
He wants to reach the top. He has for decades. And he believes he’s capable of pretty much anything.
A 🧵/1.
It’s impossible to see inside a mind.
So to say for sure eg whether Lord Frost’s adherence to the great “English” philosopher Edmund Burke is genuine, is impossible.
It seems unlikely though, given the mangled version of Burke he proclaims. /2.
So to say for sure eg whether Lord Frost’s adherence to the great “English” philosopher Edmund Burke is genuine, is impossible.
It seems unlikely though, given the mangled version of Burke he proclaims. /2.
Fans of “Yes Minister” will recall Sir Humphrey’s horror when accused of having “beliefs” or “ideas”. Think of Lord Frost as Sir Humphrey with high political ambitions.
Though not repelled by the idea of having a “vision”, he’s never had much of one.
He now needs one. Fast. /3.
Though not repelled by the idea of having a “vision”, he’s never had much of one.
He now needs one. Fast. /3.
Lord Frost owes his political advancement to one person: Boris Johnson.
In the meantime, he has achieved a high approval rating among the fraction of a percent of the population who are Conservative Party members. Hard-right & hard Brexit, mostly. And MPs of similar outlook. /4.
In the meantime, he has achieved a high approval rating among the fraction of a percent of the population who are Conservative Party members. Hard-right & hard Brexit, mostly. And MPs of similar outlook. /4.
He has decided Johnson is toast.
Bear in mind his ambition, self-regard & lack of deep or long-term guiding philosophy. What’s he supposed to do?
Ditch Johnson, of course. Giving as reasons, things those who support him will like to hear. /5.
Bear in mind his ambition, self-regard & lack of deep or long-term guiding philosophy. What’s he supposed to do?
Ditch Johnson, of course. Giving as reasons, things those who support him will like to hear. /5.
And try to live to fight another day.
Or even get promoted.
Or even become prime minister.
So, he has ditched Johnson.
And he has given exactly the reasons most likely to advance his cause with those who might back him to reach the top. /6.
Or even get promoted.
Or even become prime minister.
So, he has ditched Johnson.
And he has given exactly the reasons most likely to advance his cause with those who might back him to reach the top. /6.
His calculation includes an assessment of what’s going to happen to the Conservative Party.
On the one hand, his Party base is hard-right/ ERG/ CRG: let’s call them the Alt-Cons. So he pretty much has to bet on them. /7.
On the one hand, his Party base is hard-right/ ERG/ CRG: let’s call them the Alt-Cons. So he pretty much has to bet on them. /7.
On the other, he’s factoring in efforts to perform a complete Alt-Con takeover & merger with REF-UK.
Or, failing that, a break up of the existing Conservative Party, with the Alt-Cons taking the brand & the assets, & in any case absorbing REF-UK. /8.
Or, failing that, a break up of the existing Conservative Party, with the Alt-Cons taking the brand & the assets, & in any case absorbing REF-UK. /8.
If a break up, it’ll be strongly in the interests of Alt-Cons/REF-UK to precipitate Scottish independence & NI departure from r-UK.
Without that, they’d find it hard to get an overall majority (assuming elections ever take place) even with voter suppression & gerrymandering. /9.
Without that, they’d find it hard to get an overall majority (assuming elections ever take place) even with voter suppression & gerrymandering. /9.
Wales’ exit would be even better for the political arithmetic. But that looks harder to engineer. And a lot less necessary.
With Scotland leaving, Alt-Cons/REF-UK would have a good chance.
And, if there’s one thing Lord Frost is about, it’s an eye to the main chance. /10. End
With Scotland leaving, Alt-Cons/REF-UK would have a good chance.
And, if there’s one thing Lord Frost is about, it’s an eye to the main chance. /10. End
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