Thread by @stand_for_all

THREAD: We don't currently have enough information to truly know the effect of Brexit on people seeking asylum. What we can reasonably say though is by conflating increased channel crossings with Brexit it plays into the "Take back control" narrative. 1/ theguardian.com/politics/2021/…

What we do know is that during the first part of the pandemic overall numbers of asylum applications decreased, most likely due to increased restrictions on people travelling. 2/
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-brief…

We have, however, seen an overall increase in recent months. We don't have enough data though to fully assess what has driven this. We can make some basic hypotheses though from what we do know. 3/

gov.uk/government/sta…

We have seen an increase in "high intensity" conflicts recently, which act as a driver for refugees for obvious reasons. Events in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, South Sudan etc all have to be taken into account for why we may see an increase in refugees. 4/
reliefweb.int/report/world/a…

We may also be seeing a return to equilibrium as people who were unable to move during the height of the global pandemic have started to move, essentially the people who would have sought asylum during the decline in numbers now doing so along with those who would have anyway. 5/

We are also seeing a shift in weather patterns, which has meant that conditions for crossings, while by no means "safe", are at least more practical that in previous years. This potentially increases the period in which channel crossings can take place. 6/
metoffice.gov.uk/research/clima…

Continuing abuses against asylum seekers in Calais has meant less chance of shelter during the colder winter months, which could also potentially act as a motivating factor in causing people to attempt riskier channel crossings this late in the year. 7/
hrw.org/news/2021/10/0…

None of these factors are related to the UK leaving the EU. There are other factors to take into account though for why it would be irresponsible to conflate Brexit with numbers of people seeking asylum. 8/

Within the EU the member state responsible for processing asylum applications is decided under what are known as "Dublin Regulations". This doesn't mean the "first safe country". There is a hierarchy of reasons, of which "family ties" is the primary. 9/
ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/p…

The UK has never been the preferred destination for the majority of global refugees, but for those people who do seek asylum in it "family ties" are often cited as one of the main factors for them doing so. 10/
scotsman.com/news/migrant-c…

This is one of the reasons why, despite higher requests to have applications processed in other member states, UK tended to actually receive more transfers of asylum seekers to be processed here under the regulations than it sent to other countries. 11/ gov.uk/government/sta…

All of this assumes asylum seekers are intimately aware of the different asylum regimes in the various countries they transit through, which just isn't happening. More often than not asylum seekers have little to no idea about the procedures in the country they seek it in. 12/

Brexit may have had an effect on numbers, it may not. We won't start to really know until at least two years after all pandemic restrictions are removed though because they create too many variables. 13/

So long as people relate the number of channel crossings to Brexit though they feed into the government's narrative and make it easier for them to push things like the #BordersBill, which only put more lives at risk and deny internationally recognised rights. 14/