Although she's a future leadership contender with a strong incentive to tack right on Europe & go in hard, after chats with both sides I think @trussliz assuming EU brief *could* actually be quite positive for UK-EU relations 1/
It's not obvious she'll be beholden to Right if PM is ditched next year. Of all credible runners & riders, only @pritipatel will adopt a more hardline EU stance. But her stock has fallen as Tories think she's failed on migration. @RishiSunak @Jeremy_Hunt would be pragmatic 2/
.@nadhimzahawi wd focus on vaccines; @sajidjavid on Covid. This isn't an exhaustive list, but it begs the question: who would the €sceptics vote for, if not Truss? If she's too extreme, she'll also alienate MPs she needs to get into runoff, who basically want Protocol sorted 3/
The FCDO prefers deals over conflict. Integrating EU into broader UK foreign-pol will also create imp synergies - good relations with EU will serve Truss' other strategic goals (tough stance on Russia/China) & force UKG to internalise consequences on US relationship too 4/
It may also enable more coherent UKG EU policy as it'll finally link UK-Bxl nexus to chats @trussliz is having bilaterally with EU capitals. There'll also be lots of sensible voices around Truss. I hear @TimBarrowFCO (former PermRep) cd play big role. @LindsayCAppleby will too 5/
While some folks have raised concerns about @chhcalling, who will serve as Truss’ deputy as Europe Minister, he is seen as a pragmatic €sceptic by senior Tories. As a former MEP with networks in Bxl & Strasbourg he shd be able to play a constructive role in negotiations too 6/
The EU side is basically of view that any change from @DavidGHFrost is good. The fact Truss has no baggage from either WA or TCA negotiations is also good. There's a sense - one she also conveyed at G7 in Liverpool - that she wants to get stuff done. And she's got some capital..
..in bank with Nordics & Baltics for her firmness on Belarus & Russia. Still EU isn't naive. It's clear early on Truss will have to show she's no pushover. So a deal will necessarily take longer to strike. But for now the EU would rather Truss' ambition than Frost's ideology ENDS
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