Laurie Garrett Profile picture
Dec 20, 2021 8 tweets 6 min read Read on X
I tweeted that we are in an #Omicron surge in NYC, but then studied today's data here 👇🏽gothamist.com/news/coronavir…
Mea culpa for sloppy reference to Omicron.
Thread follows based on these numbers
2/First of all, averaging 27,000 new #COVID19 cases/day is not sustainable -- even if fewer than 2% of them require a clinical visit or hospitalization. It's the Holidays, staffing is low, and staff is burned out. If caseloads double by Christmas, hospitals will be full.
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3/ The difference in #COVID19 incidence-by-immunization-rate now in NYC is striking. Vaccination may not offer 100% protection against infection, but it's clearly of enormous benefit.
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4/ Though #Omicron dominates the news, and even I had assumed this surge was driven by it, genome testing reveals it's mostly #Delta soaring. Any comfort -- false or real -- taken in the notion that Omicron is "less dangerous" vanishes if the dominant strain is still Delta.
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5/ Comparing this to March/April 2020 is, of course, tricky. Yesterday NY State saw >37,000 new #COVID19 cases, while at 2020 peak in mid-April it was about 11,000. Back then, there were no #vaccines & few clinical options, so cases were more severe and ICUs were full.
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6/ So, let's compare hospitalizations. Until this week, NYC had been through two huge hospitalization surges: April2020 & Jan/Feb2021. The current surge in #COVID19 admissions now exceeds both of those.
How high will this go?
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7/ Hospitalizations are also climbing in #NYC , now exceeding our summer 2021 peak. Again, this is not sustainable if we continue to have an epidemic doubling time of 2-3 days. Image
8/ The @CDCgov has designated every county in #NewYork State, #NewJersey and #Connecticut as "HIGH" transmission zones. All at once. In past surges, the picture was more variable. This means, among other things, that the entire region needs resources & HCWers, simultaneously. Image

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Jul 19
As #JoeBiden hunkered down in Delaware & Party leaders scrambled to figure out how #Democrats can win the election, I kept thinking of March 31, 1968. On that day the White House put out word of a mysterious speech LBJ would give from the Oval Office.
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@BeschlossDCImage
2/
In a world without Internet or 24-hour news cycles the buzz in Washington about the event failed to reach the American people until that night. America assumed LBJ’s address would be about the widening war in Vietnam. On live television, a very haggard-looking LBJ began:
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3/
"Good evening, my fellow Americans:
Tonight, I want to speak to you of peace in Vietnam and Southeast Asia.
No other question so preoccupies our people. No other dream so absorbs the 250 million human beings who live in that part of the world."
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Read 16 tweets
Jul 9
While #Trump claims no direct connection to #Project2025 it's clear han no #Republican in national power has denounced the Heritage Foundation 887-page manifesto. I put a few hours into scrutinizing the Project's plans for @HHSGov & health agencies. (pages 449-502)
🧵unfolds: Image
2/Health & Human Services @HHSGov must “respect for the sacred rights of conscience” for Federal workers & healthcare workers broadly who object to #Abortions contraception, gender reassignment & other issues.
“Radical actors inside & outside govt are promoting..."
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3/ “...harmful identity politics that replaces biological sex w/subjective notions of 'gender identity' & bases a person’s worth on his or her race, sex, or other identities. This destructive dogma, under the guise of 'equity,' threatens American’s fundamental liberties..."
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Read 17 tweets
Jul 5
When a society attacks its toiling scientists, ranking the opinions of quacks, religions & charlatans above those of scientific insight and discovery, it is a sorrowful time.
Scientists who have been persecuted for their work...
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2/
-Muhammad ibn Zakariyā Rāzī or Rhazes of Baghdad (860 - 932 AD) beaten into blindness for introducing medical advances from non-Arab countries
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-Michael Servetus (1511-1553) made discoveries in blood circulation. Burned at the stake by Calvin in Geneva
-Henry Oldenburg (1619-1677) promoted sharing scientific insights, labelled a spy, held in the Tower of London
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Read 11 tweets
Jul 1
In 4 earth-shattering decisions this term, #SCOTUS gutted authority from all federal regulatory agencies. These are very radical decisions – essentially overturning all the sentiments of our nation’s founders debated in The Federalist Papers.
In this 🧵I'll lay it out.Image
2/Today, w/Corner Post v Federal Reserve #SCOTUS decided that anybody can sue a fedl agcy, over anything, w/no statute of limitations.
Dissenting, Justice Jackson: “The majority throws caution to the wind & engages in...misguided reasoning about statutory limitations periods..."
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supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf…Image
3/Jackson: "The far-reaching results of the Court’s ruling in this case are staggering.”
“In one fell swoop, the Court has effectively eliminated any limitations period for APA lawsuits....This means that, from this day forward, administrative agencies can be sued in perpetuity over every final decision they make."
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Read 20 tweets
Jun 14
This utterly reprehensible Pentagon disinfo campaign executed by the #Trump admin to create Asian suspicion of the Chinese #COVID #vaccine is reminiscent of the CIA's use of a fake #polio vax effort in Pakistan to obtain...
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&
csis.org/blogs/smart-gl…
reuters.com/investigates/s…
...DNA samples from children living in the Osama bin Laden compound in 2011. In both cases, geopolitics trumped public health, leading to countless deaths, assaults on health workers and vaccinators and undermining the credibility of #vaccines . This is appalling.
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In resp to angry public health leaders who later learned of the 2011 #CIA/#polio/binLaden effort, the #Obama admin on May16, 2014 stated that since Aug2013 a policy was in place forbidding the CIA from using #vaccination progs, workers, or genetic materials obtained...for intell.
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Read 4 tweets
May 9
Trump’s deal to Big Oil [give my campaign $1B & all #Biden climate & green policies will be void] echoes the Teapot Dome Scandal in another #Republican #POTUS race 100 yrs ago. Until now, it was the biggest presidential corruption case in US history.
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history.com/topics/roaring…
2
In 1920, the US Navy was converting its fleet from coal to oil and wanted oil on federal lands reserved for military needs. Republican Warren Harding was running for POTUS: he told oil execs to back him & he would let them drill those reserves. When he became President...
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3
Harding appointed mining bigwig & Big Oil ally Alfred Fall as Sec. of Interior. Fall handed over prime oil drilling rights to Sinclair's Mammoth Oil & 1 other company, without competitive bidding. By 1923 Sinclair was sucking so much oil out of Teapot Dome WY that...
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Read 12 tweets

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