Thread by @Laurie_Garrett

I tweeted that we are in an #Omicron surge in NYC, but then studied today's data here 👇🏽gothamist.com/news/coronavir…
Mea culpa for sloppy reference to Omicron.
Thread follows based on these numbers

2/First of all, averaging 27,000 new #COVID19 cases/day is not sustainable -- even if fewer than 2% of them require a clinical visit or hospitalization. It's the Holidays, staffing is low, and staff is burned out. If caseloads double by Christmas, hospitals will be full.
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3/ The difference in #COVID19 incidence-by-immunization-rate now in NYC is striking. Vaccination may not offer 100% protection against infection, but it's clearly of enormous benefit.
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4/ Though #Omicron dominates the news, and even I had assumed this surge was driven by it, genome testing reveals it's mostly #Delta soaring. Any comfort -- false or real -- taken in the notion that Omicron is "less dangerous" vanishes if the dominant strain is still Delta.
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5/ Comparing this to March/April 2020 is, of course, tricky. Yesterday NY State saw >37,000 new #COVID19 cases, while at 2020 peak in mid-April it was about 11,000. Back then, there were no #vaccines & few clinical options, so cases were more severe and ICUs were full.
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6/ So, let's compare hospitalizations. Until this week, NYC had been through two huge hospitalization surges: April2020 & Jan/Feb2021. The current surge in #COVID19 admissions now exceeds both of those.
How high will this go?
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7/ Hospitalizations are also climbing in #NYC , now exceeding our summer 2021 peak. Again, this is not sustainable if we continue to have an epidemic doubling time of 2-3 days.

8/ The @CDCgov has designated every county in #NewYork State, #NewJersey and #Connecticut as "HIGH" transmission zones. All at once. In past surges, the picture was more variable. This means, among other things, that the entire region needs resources & HCWers, simultaneously.