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Michael McFaul Profile picture
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21 Dec, 5 tweets, 1 min read
In between Putin's spring military build-up on Ukraine's border and today's bigger build-up, what changed? 1/ THREAD
Did NATO become more aggressive in offering Ukraine membership? No. 2/
Did Biden become more vocal in supporting Ukraine's NATO membership? No. Just the opposite. Zelensky was disappointed in what he heard from Biden about NATO when they met last summer. 3/
Did Putin like what he won from coercive diplomacy the last time around and so decided to try it again now? Maybe 4/
Has Putin's determination to crush Ukrainian sovereignty and democracy increased? Listening to him and reading his long "history" article, yes. 5/ END THREAD

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
20 Dec
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine..." 1/ THREAD
including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine. 2/
Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force ...3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
17 Dec
Now that Putin has published his ideas for a new European security agreement, let me propose some additional articles to the draft agreement. 1/
Article 1. Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Moldova and restore full sovereignty to this European country. 2/
Article 2. Russia agrees to withdraw its forces from Georgia, renounce recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent countries, and restore the full sovereignty of Georgia. 3/
Read 9 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
16 Dec
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, ..." 1/ THREAD
including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine. 2/
Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force ...3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
14 Dec
In the margins of my undergrad thesis explaining Soviet intentions regarding interventions/non-interventions in Eastern Europe (56, 68, 81), my advisor, Alex Dallin, wrote in the margins 2 dozens times, "how do you know"? Wisdom from a great Soviet scholar is relevant today. 1/
BTW, I also wrote about US responses. Regarding Hungary 1956, we overpromised and undelivered. 2/
Regarding Czechoslovakia 1968, we did next to nothing; Johnson was focused on Asia (Vietnam) and polarized domestic politics. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
11 Dec
In 2010, "Russia" attended the NATO summit in Lisbon and called the friendly meeting "historic in terms of its spirit and atmosphere.." 1/ THREAD
At the NATO summit in 2010, "Russia" presented a grand proposal for missile defense cooperation, not exactly something you normally do with enemies. 2/
In 2011, "Russia" abstained on UN Security Resolutions 1970 & 1973, authorizing the use of force against Libya by NATO countries. Russia could have vetoed these resolutions and stopped NATO countries, but did not. It was a major cooperative moment between Russia-US-NATO. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
10 Dec
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine..." 1 THREAD
, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine. 2/
Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force ... 3/
Read 4 tweets

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