1/4

Here is the bigger picture of natural gas flows from Russia to Europe

(Today's flow hit zero for the first time since Nov 7)
2/4

And here is the result of this reduced flow.

Europe natural gas inventories are at record seasonal lows, and these inventories are falling further and further into record seasonal low territory.
3/4

And this is the market's response

A chart that only crypto-traders understand.
4/4

And since Europe went green and took its nukes off-line, that placed a bigger reliance on natural gas for power generation.

So, in addition to paying up to stay warm, electric bills will be rising like Omicron cases.

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More from @biancoresearch

22 Dec
1/10

We are in a strange time in the bond market. Lots misreading of its message and what the market is pricing what seems to be an outlier.

Let me try and explain.

@TheStalwart @DavidBeckworth @M_C_Klein @dandolfa

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/10

Daly and Waller are making news talking about a March hike. Why? That is what is already priced in!

Hikes are now priced for March, June and Dec.
3rd hike in Nov (47%) and a 4th hike in Feb 23 (40%) are close.
3/10

This is a rare period that the table above is not the middle of the consensus, but instead an outlier.

The consensus continues to argue/rationalize why this hiking schedule is too aggressive.

My view the market gets what it wants, one way or another.
Read 12 tweets
21 Dec
1/5

An update on the biggest story no one is talking about (at least in the US)

Through Dec 19, only 59% of European natural gas storages are filled. The labels show the % of storage filled at similar points in past years is closer to 77% on average.

59% is a 10-year low.
2/5

As the chart below shows, the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is down considerably.
3/5

In the last several days flows have essentially hit zero.
Read 5 tweets
20 Dec
1/9

I actually think you were right, and so are the dozens of replies to me that "people" will relax once they find out it is no more harmful than the flu.

But this is the wrong crowd to focus on.

@kofinas

2/9

It's all about blue state politicians ("Karens"). Will they call off their "control" to "stop the spread" to "protect health" all while "following the science?"
3/9

Will Blue Karens say it ok that the US is setting new daily case records, and hospitalizations are rising to new records in the Northeast and upper Midwest, as these charts show?

Will their message be "continue with your life?"

Read 9 tweets
19 Dec
1/4

What is the biggest story that no one is talking about?

It might be that natural gas is NOT flowing from Russia to Europe.

*GAS AUCTIONS SIGNAL RUSSIAN FLOWS TO REMAIN CAPPED ON MONDAY

*ONLY 4% OF GAS-PIPELINE SPACE INTO MALLNOW BOOKED FOR DEC. 20

@JavierBlas
2/4

The price of natural gas in Europe is up 10x in a year.

And German electricity prices are going through the roof, up 8x in a year.

And winter does not technically start until Tuesday.
Read 6 tweets
19 Dec
1/13

How big a deal is inflation? Some new news this morning.

In Washington this is big deal for Biden and his 2022 agenda.

wsj.com/articles/manch…
2/13

Manchin has cited a range of reasons for Democrats to not forge ahead with their ambitious package since the summer, urging a "strategic pause" since August.

But inflation is at the top of his list.
nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1…
3/13

Manchin even cited Powell's testimony about inflation.

Do not underestimate the impact inflation is having on the 40% that rent and have little to no savings.

This is why we get this incredible position by a political party

They want rate hikes!

ft.com/content/1ae49b…
Read 13 tweets
18 Dec
1/14

COVID update

3 things at the top.

1. This is not what I want, or think is right, it is what I fear is coming.

2. Rising cases cause POLITICAL panic and drive policy (read: restrictions).

3. Economic restrictions mean inflation; they hit supply more than demand.
2/14

Start with South Africa and the rest of Africa, cases are going parabolic.

South Africa cases are up 100x in a month and the rest of Africa is following close behind.

This is the source of Omicron and it is not slowing yet.
3/14

Asia, the beginning of the supply chain, and it is trending higher.

Most of these countries used the Sinovac vaccine that has been shown ineffective against Omicron.

Many also have a zero COVID policy. One case and they lock down.
Read 17 tweets

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