Rob Lee Profile picture
22 Dec, 32 tweets, 11 min read
Thread on yesterday's Expanded Meeting of the Defense Ministry Board.
Putin: "work continued on the modernization of the Army and Navy on a grand scale. Consequently, the share of modern weapons exceeded 71 percent in the troops and 89 percent in the strategic nuclear forces."
Thread from last year's Expanded Meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Board. 2/
Putin: We continued to actively develop cutting-edge weapons systems. Some of them,...Avangard and Kinzhal, have been put on combat duty. The Navy accomplished a wide range of tasks. Russian ships and submarines constantly patrolled all important sectors of the world’s oceans. 3/
Putin mentioned naval exercises in the Arctic, Baltic and Northern seas, and Atlantic and Pacific oceans. He talked about the role of Russian forces in Syria, Karabakh, and the Zapad 2021 exercise with Belarus. He also thanked military doctors for their role fighting COVID. 4/
"I would like to emphasize that the army itself has taken the necessary measures to combat the spread of the coronavirus in its ranks. Almost 100% of military personnel have been vaccinated. This made it possible to stem the tide of infection and protect service members" 5/
"military construction force has been operating with high efficiency. I am referring to more than building a significant amount of infrastructure for the army and navy on time. The military builders have also helped to ensure uninterrupted water supply to Crimea and Sevastopol"6/
"The military political situation in the world remains complicated, with increased conflict potential and new seats of tension in several regions. In particular, the growth of the US and NATO military forces in direct proximity to the Russian border and major military drills," 7/
Putin: "It is extremely alarming that elements of the US global defense system are being deployed near Russia. The Mk 41 launchers, which are located in Romania and are to be deployed in Poland, are adapted for launching the Tomahawk cruise missiles." 8/
kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"If this infrastructure continues to move forward, and if US and NATO missile systems are deployed in Ukraine, their flight time to Moscow will be only 7–10 minutes, or even five minutes for hypersonic systems. This is a huge challenge for us, for our security." 9/
"[POTUS] proposed appointing senior officials to oversee this sphere. It was in response to his proposal that we drafted our proposals on precluding the further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of offensive strike systems in the countries bordering on Russia" 10/
"We need long-term legally binding guarantees. Well, we know very well that even legal guarantees cannot be completely fail-safe, because the US easily pulls out of any international treaty that has ceased to be interesting to it for some reason" mentioning ABM and Open Skies.11/
"We know the worth of such verbal assurances, fine words and promises...in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when we were told that our concerns about NATO’s potential expansion eastwards were absolutely groundless. And then we saw 5 waves of the bloc’s eastward expansion." 12/
"Do you remember how it happened? All of you are adults. It happened at a time when Russia’s relations with the United States and main member states of NATO were cloudless, if not completely allied." 13/
"What was the point of supporting separatism in the North Caucasus, with the help of even ISIS – well, if not ISIS, there were other terrorist groups. They obviously supported terrorists. What for? What was the point of expanding NATO and withdrawing from the ABM Treaty?" 14/
"They are to blame for what is happening in Europe now, for the escalation of tensions there. Russia had to respond at every step, and the situation was continuously going from bad to worse... we are forced to resolve it: After all, we cannot allow the scenario I mentioned" 15/
"Why did they do all this in the then conditions?...I think the reason lies in the euphoria from...the so-called victory in the Cold War. This was due to their wrong assessment of the situation at that time, due to their unprofessional, wrong analysis of probable scenarios." 16/
Putin continued, "I would like to emphasize again: we are not demanding any special exclusive terms for ourselves. Russia stands for equal and indivisible security in the whole of Eurasia." 17/
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
"Naturally, as I have already noted, if our Western colleagues continue their obviously aggressive line, we will take appropriate military-technical reciprocal measures and will have a tough response to their unfriendly steps." 18/
"I would like to stress that we are fully entitled to these actions that are designed to ensure Russia’s security and independence...they are operating thousands of km away from their national territory under different pretexts, including the need to ensure their own security"19/
"When international law and the UN Charter get in their way, they declare them obsolete and unnecessary. However, when something meets their interests, they immediately refer to the norms of international law, the UN Charter, international humanitarian law and so on." 20/
"In this regard..it is important to continue planned, steady, systemic development of the Armed Forces, including in line with their priorities, set forth in the latest version of the National Security Strategy and the Concept for Building and Developing the Armed Forces to 2030"
"1st, it is necessary to continue the planned and well-balanced procurement of modern weapons and equipment for military units and to devote special attention to deliveries of high-precision systems, cutting-edge reconnaissance, navigation, communications and control systems" 22/
"2nd, combat and tactical training programs should prioritize efforts to master modern weaponry, as well as new forms and methods of combat operations." He said exercises should be modified to take this priority into account, including the Vostok 2022 command-staff exercise. 23/
"Third, all-out success in many spheres now directly depends on well-thought-out and rapid decision-making. In the military sphere, during combat operations, decisions are made in minutes or even seconds." 24/
"It is therefore necessary to develop systems to support the decision-making process by commanders at all levels, especially at the tactical level, and to introduce elements of artificial intelligence into these systems." 25/
"4th, it goes without saying that effective operational algorithms should be established at all levels, and advanced automatic systems should also be introduced...we can see that modern military conflicts do not take place under pre-set patterns... commanders play a key role" 26/
"A lot depends on their knowledge, experience, personal qualities, and those who make truly unconventional decisions win battles. Consequently, during operational and combat training, it is necessary to train versatile commanders who possess knowledge in all fields." 27/
"They should be listed in the personnel pool of top military commanders, and it is necessary to keep an eye on them even now, to guide them and to provide them with opportunities for subsequent promotion." 28/
5th "Given the complicated international situation, it is necessary to develop military and military-technical cooperation with states that are members of the SCO and the CSTO and to pay special attention to strengthening the defense capability of the Russia-Belarus Union State"
"One of our absolute priorities is to increase the level of social guarantees for the military personnel. Defenders of the Motherland perform special tasks which are often highly complicated, demanding and perilous. We will make sure that they are duly rewarded for their service"
Putin said the average monthly salary in Russia is 55,000 rubles, the average in the leading industries (oil, finance and transport) is 63,200 rubles, and is 81,200 rubles for Lieutenants. 31/
Putin finished his speech by talking about improvements in providing servicemembers housing, a perennial issue. 32/

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More from @RALee85

22 Dec
Good thread by Mike, but I respectfully disagree. Below is my explanation of the spring buildup. When we consider what happened over the summer, it is clear that the spring demonstration didn't achieve Russia's objectives, and the current activity is likely a final warning.
Events after the Putin-Biden summit:
-HMS Defender incident
-UK-UKR £1.7 B naval agreement
-Continued US arms deliveries (additional $60 M announced in Aug-Sep)
-US-Ukraine Strategic Defense Framework
-Continued Turkish-Ukrainian defense cooperation
-TB2 strike in the Donbas
2/
The totality of these events (the TB2 strike was a surprise), as well as continued NATO naval/aviation presence in the Black Sea, was too much for Moscow, and they wanted to stop further "creeping" NATO defense support for Ukraine before Kyiv received long-range weapons. 3/
Read 9 tweets
21 Dec
Keep in mind that Moscow is 270 miles from the closest part of the border with Ukraine but it is also 350 miles from the border with Latvia (let's not even mention Narva to St. Petersburg). NATO hasn't deployed those kind of weapons to the Baltics for a reason.
That's because such a move would be considered escalatory and destabilizing in Moscow. So how serious is the threat of the US deploying such systems to Ukraine? IMO, not likely, but I think this might be more about the systems in Poland and Romania. 2/
That's why I think one of the best deterrence measures is to open the door (or possibly even make a public commitment) to deploying land-based long-range missiles and missile defenses in the Baltics (with their agreement) in the event of a Russian escalation in Ukraine. 3/
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec
Putin and Shoigu inspecting new rifles, including an SVCh Chuvakin, AK-12, possibly an ORSIS AR-15J, and what looks like an HK416 (probably local model).
t.me/dimsmirnov175/…
Another video of Putin handling one of the AR-type rifles. 2/
t.me/RIAKremlinpool…
Screenshots of the SVCh Chuvakin, AK-12, HK416 clone, and other scoped AR-type rifle. 3/
Read 5 tweets
12 Dec
Russia stopped short of Tbilisi because they had already achieved their goals, a siege would have been costly, and logistics was becoming a problem, not because of the US' response. Instead, Putin learned that Russia could invade non-NATO neighbors and the US wouldn't intervene.
If anything, the US' response to the 2008 War set the stage for 2014 and the current predicament by showing Russia a US military response would not happen. What you think was a sign of strength was interpreted in Moscow as weakness.
If you try to assess Russian foreign policy primarily through the lens of US domestic politics, you will get it wrong. There is also a 90% chance that any op-ed about Russia that mentions Putin's comment about the collapse of the USSR or Lenin's quote about bayonets will be bad.
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
Thread: Some interesting nuggets in this interview with Andrey Yelchaninov, Deputy Chairman of the Military-Industrial Commission. He says state trials of the Armata will be completed in 2022 and the military will receive >40 Armata tanks after 2023.
interfax.ru/interview/8071…
I think he probably meant the Russian military will receive >40 Armata in 2023. He also said new Armata ammunition is going through trials right now. 2/
Yelchaninov said tests of the Su-57's 2nd-stage engine will continue until 2026 with the first Su-57 with the 2nd-stage engine to be delivered in 2027. Of the 76 Su-57 ordered as part of GPV-2027, only 25 are expected to have the 2nd-stage engine. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec
Not sure what "major change" means, but there is evidence Russia is continuing to send units and equipment near Ukraine, which I assume will continue. The "red line" from the US is a Russian invasion, but not a Russian enhanced military posture with more reinforcements.
Unless Biden announced major concessions during his conversation (which was never likely), the Russian buildup was always going to continue. Putin said he thinks there is value in keeping up tensions. We should expect to see an enhanced Russian mil force near Ukraine for months.
Russia has deployed much if not most of a Central Military District combined arms army near Ukraine. Until it leaves, Russia will have an enlarged military presence, and it would be costly to move it back and return it to Ukraine if the situation worsens. Easier to leave it.
Read 4 tweets

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