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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
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23 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
1/4
Second day in a row zero gas from Russia
2/4
But don't worry, a convoy of LNG tankers are steaming across the Atlantic with Gas!

@mercoglianos

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/4
Gas prices are off their peak. Has the market turned it focus from Russian gas flows to these LNG tankers?
4/4
Does this narrative remind anyone of anything????

(BTW, this was a good movie)

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Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
24 Dec
1/6
Day three and no gas from Russia.

As the seasonal chart shows 2021 (shaded) this is way below the typical flows seen this time of year.

@DoombergT
2/6
Bigger picture gas flows are way down from what was typical over the last decade.
3/6
Euro storage is 58% full, 10% below the record low on this date.

Euro storage bottoms in late March. The record was 18%. Since they are already about 10% below this, could it dip under 10% this season?

Cold winter = 0% storage?

Remember Russian gas flows are now zero.
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
24 Dec
1/6
This thread is about what is, and what the current policies are leading to. Not what should be.

The world set a new daily record yesterday.
2/6
Leading this record is the parabolic spike by Europe.
7-day quarantines are mandatory for positive cases.
3/6
And leading Europe to new records is the UK, Italy and Spain.
Read 6 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
22 Dec
1/10

We are in a strange time in the bond market. Lots misreading of its message and what the market is pricing what seems to be an outlier.

Let me try and explain.

@TheStalwart @DavidBeckworth @M_C_Klein @dandolfa

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/10

Daly and Waller are making news talking about a March hike. Why? That is what is already priced in!

Hikes are now priced for March, June and Dec.
3rd hike in Nov (47%) and a 4th hike in Feb 23 (40%) are close.
3/10

This is a rare period that the table above is not the middle of the consensus, but instead an outlier.

The consensus continues to argue/rationalize why this hiking schedule is too aggressive.

My view the market gets what it wants, one way or another.
Read 12 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
22 Dec
1/4
Here is the bigger picture of natural gas flows from Russia to Europe

(Today's flow hit zero for the first time since Nov 7)
2/4
And here is the result of this reduced flow.

Europe natural gas inventories are at record seasonal lows, and these inventories are falling further and further into record seasonal low territory.
3/4
And this is the market's response

A chart that only crypto-traders understand.
Read 4 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
21 Dec
1/5
An update on the biggest story no one is talking about (at least in the US)

Through Dec 19, only 59% of European natural gas storages are filled. The labels show the % of storage filled at similar points in past years is closer to 77% on average.

59% is a 10-year low.
2/5
As the chart below shows, the flow of gas from Russia to Europe is down considerably.
3/5
In the last several days flows have essentially hit zero.
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco biancoresearch.eth Profile picture
20 Dec
1/9
I actually think you were right, and so are the dozens of replies to me that "people" will relax once they find out it is no more harmful than the flu.

But this is the wrong crowd to focus on.

@kofinas

2/9
It's all about blue state politicians ("Karens"). Will they call off their "control" to "stop the spread" to "protect health" all while "following the science?"
3/9
Will Blue Karens say it ok that the US is setting new daily case records, and hospitalizations are rising to new records in the Northeast and upper Midwest, as these charts show?

Will their message be "continue with your life?"

Read 9 tweets

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