1/5

With a week to go, the US Aggregate bond market total-return is tracking its third worst year ever.

Data begins in 1976
2/5

Also, with a week to go, the total-return of the 2-year note is tracking its worst year ever, and it first lost ever.

Data goes back t 1973.

(Just ask all the macro hedge funds that got rekted by the carry trade/flattening curve in 2H this year).
3/5

And with a week left in the year, the total-return of the 5-year note is tracking its third-worst year ever.

Data goes back to 1979.
4/5

Finally, the 30-year total-return is tracking its 6th worst year ever with four trading days left this year.

Data goes back to 1973
5/5

For those that keep thinking the bond market is NOT suggesting inflation is a problem, 2021 is tracking to be one of the worst years in the last 50. These losses hurt a lot of hedge funds.

How bad did it have to be for you to believe the bond market was signaling inflation?

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More from @biancoresearch

26 Dec
1/7

news.yahoo.com/fauci-vows-mor…

More tests, read positives, are coming in Jan:
-
"One of the problems is that that's not going to be totally available to everyone until we get to January, and there are still some issues now of people having trouble getting tested," Fauci told ABC
2/7

Brown bars are the weekend. Many testing centers and labs are closed Sat/Sun which is why positive results dip.

Yesterday was not only a weekend, but it was also Christmas Day.

Yet, the number of positive results soared to 131k, the highest Saturday since last January.
3/7

Most European countries reported zero yesterday, including the UK (source: Johns Hopkins).

The actual positives not reported yesterday, when everyone is caught up, will be added to subsequent days as history is not revised.

So, expect a big spike next week.
Read 7 tweets
26 Dec
1/4

For the 5th consecutive day, no gas from Russia.

Data goes backs a decade and this is the first five-day streak of no gas.

And it is completely unprecedented to have no gas in winter (seasonal chart).

@DoombergT
2/4

Russia is now gaslighting the situation ... it is a "lie" that no gas is going to Europe, got that!!

rt.com/russia/544414-…
3/4

Meanwhile European gas storage is down to 56%, way below the typically range seen in late December.

56% storage is something usually seen in early February.
Read 4 tweets
24 Dec
1/6

Day three and no gas from Russia.

As the seasonal chart shows 2021 (shaded) this is way below the typical flows seen this time of year.

@DoombergT
2/6

Bigger picture gas flows are way down from what was typical over the last decade.
3/6

Euro storage is 58% full, 10% below the record low on this date.

Euro storage bottoms in late March. The record was 18%. Since they are already about 10% below this, could it dip under 10% this season?

Cold winter = 0% storage?

Remember Russian gas flows are now zero.
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
1/6

This thread is about what is, and what the current policies are leading to. Not what should be.

The world set a new daily record yesterday.
2/6

Leading this record is the parabolic spike by Europe.
7-day quarantines are mandatory for positive cases.
3/6

And leading Europe to new records is the UK, Italy and Spain.
Read 6 tweets
23 Dec
1/4

Second day in a row zero gas from Russia
2/4

But don't worry, a convoy of LNG tankers are steaming across the Atlantic with Gas!

@mercoglianos

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/4

Gas prices are off their peak. Has the market turned it focus from Russian gas flows to these LNG tankers?
Read 4 tweets
22 Dec
1/10

We are in a strange time in the bond market. Lots misreading of its message and what the market is pricing what seems to be an outlier.

Let me try and explain.

@TheStalwart @DavidBeckworth @M_C_Klein @dandolfa

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/10

Daly and Waller are making news talking about a March hike. Why? That is what is already priced in!

Hikes are now priced for March, June and Dec.
3rd hike in Nov (47%) and a 4th hike in Feb 23 (40%) are close.
3/10

This is a rare period that the table above is not the middle of the consensus, but instead an outlier.

The consensus continues to argue/rationalize why this hiking schedule is too aggressive.

My view the market gets what it wants, one way or another.
Read 12 tweets

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