With a week to go, the US Aggregate bond market total-return is tracking its third worst year ever.
Data begins in 1976
2/5
Also, with a week to go, the total-return of the 2-year note is tracking its worst year ever, and it first lost ever.
Data goes back t 1973.
(Just ask all the macro hedge funds that got rekted by the carry trade/flattening curve in 2H this year).
3/5
And with a week left in the year, the total-return of the 5-year note is tracking its third-worst year ever.
Data goes back to 1979.
4/5
Finally, the 30-year total-return is tracking its 6th worst year ever with four trading days left this year.
Data goes back to 1973
5/5
For those that keep thinking the bond market is NOT suggesting inflation is a problem, 2021 is tracking to be one of the worst years in the last 50. These losses hurt a lot of hedge funds.
How bad did it have to be for you to believe the bond market was signaling inflation?
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More tests, read positives, are coming in Jan:
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"One of the problems is that that's not going to be totally available to everyone until we get to January, and there are still some issues now of people having trouble getting tested," Fauci told ABC
2/7
Brown bars are the weekend. Many testing centers and labs are closed Sat/Sun which is why positive results dip.
Yesterday was not only a weekend, but it was also Christmas Day.
Yet, the number of positive results soared to 131k, the highest Saturday since last January.
3/7
Most European countries reported zero yesterday, including the UK (source: Johns Hopkins).
The actual positives not reported yesterday, when everyone is caught up, will be added to subsequent days as history is not revised.