A Thread on the "Seventh" Wave: On this day in 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunamis struck. They killed 227K people in 14 countries; many perished from deprivation later. Enough time has past to answer a basic question: why did they die? It is not always obvious. #tsunami2004 1/
I have spent the last year researching and writing a book trying to find the commonalities across centuries of disasters, rather than viewing them as distinct or a surprise. It is obvious disasters are no longer random or rare. Hence the title, The Devil Never Sleeps. 2/
It is too simple to believe those by the water died and those further away survived. Some of that is true. But we study disasters to also challenge conventional wisdom so we might do better, so we actually know why that person died and that one didn't. 3/
On the morning of the 26th, the sea nomads of Thailand, members of the Moken tribe, noticed the waters were too still. There was no wind; dolphins were swimming out to deeper waters; deep sea fish seemed to be appearing close to shore. 4/
They started to evacuate. They knew. The tribe’s chief, Salama, shouted to tribal members and tourists: “This is laboon, an ancient thing that has swallowed whole islands before.” Laboon he had learned from his forefathers, was known as the “seventh wave,” the deadly one. 5/
Laboon. The tribe understood this phenomenon because they had learned from their ancestors the story of a 1907 tsunami that had devastated the area. They called it the Seventh Wave then. And their descendants knew what to watch for. The waters in 2004 were too still. 6/
The lack of knowledge by others, what we call "situational awareness", is why newer villages of immigrants and tourist areas had disproportionate death counts compared to those who understood the waters. 7/
Why did this person die and that person didn't? I don't mean this as defeatist, like stuff happens and well whatever. But life or death isn't just randomness or bad fortune. We spend a lot of time wondering why bad things happen or hoping that they won't in the future and 8/
a lot less time on that moment when it happens, when one person dies and another person doesn't. And if we can understand that moment, then maybe in a world where the devil never sleeps, we might do better for all the times ahead. 9/
I am trying to get over the inherent squeamishness of a book that finds its greatest relevancy when tragedy has struck. I hope I do not cross a line. I figure 2004 was a while ago. But if stories like this are of interest, preorder for 3/29/22. 10/10

publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/juliett…

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More from @juliettekayyem

4 Dec
The week 2 narrative about #OxfordHigh is starting to form, led by gun advocates and partisans, amplified by “wise” commentary from those who want you to believe they aren’t part of first groups. It is that we should worry about criminalizing bad parenting. Don’t take the bait.1/
The fact this case is one of first impression in a school shooting case suggests that the law is actually pretty tolerant of shitty parenting. And it is. And should be. The schools liability is different; not excusable, but not the same. Two teachers acted responsibly. 2/
This case against the parents is different. The facts are well known and they shock the conscience. No gun law violations have been filed since Michigan law does not require safety locks and the dad bought the gun in his own name. This is not about gun ownership. 3/
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov
I know Wed. @TheAtlantic headline made some wary, but it describes the right way to think about the next phase, inc. #Omicron. Variants, outbreaks, mixed progress mark a road of adaptive recovery. US need not sustain indefinite emergency stance and panic. Read then respond. 1/
I am not a doctor. I’m a consumer of health intelligence and advise public and private entities that have to balance many demands. In this essay, I describe how in past disasters, response personnel were complimented by nontechnical experts in recovery phase. 2/
Former Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus, then Secretary of Navy, led Gulf oil spill recovery. Then HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan led Superstorm Sandy recovery. They did not lead emergency responders or health personnel. They weighed competing needs after the crisis. 3/
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
If Covid and all its economic, social consequences was also a contributing factor for Tuesday’s results, it is not just a question of messaging. It is that this is an unprecedented recovery. Some thoughts from history of disasters 1/

nytimes.com/2021/11/03/us/…
We are in what might be called the undone phase. To call it a new normal is premature. I’ve called it a “now normal” or “adaptive recovery” given daily pivots, ups and downs. In this sense, as far as the history of disaster management goes, we are in unprecedented territory. 2/
For all other disasters, we move from response (search and rescue, for example) to recovery phase at pretty obvious moments. We pivot quickly to the recovery stage to get systems back up and running, bury the dead, demolish the dangerous structures, and try to avoid 3/
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct
What is happening with the vaccine mandate in Chicago is important to follow tonight. Union bravado. A mayor who is not caving, but flexible. A Governor who will help by deploying the Guard to replace police. Dual lawsuits and injunctions. 1/
chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/…
It's all horrible in sense of a society that comes to this, with unions and publicly paid officials so undermining the public good. (Through Covid, I have become more hostile and less supportive of unions (teacher/police) and I consider myself firmly left of center. Good job.) 2/
But this is bigger than Chicago. Lightfoot will sway a little (give some time, start enforcing unpaid leave in waves so that subsequent rounds will get shot), but not likely to fold. It is not clear the numbers of unvaccinated cops; unions lie, remember. 3/
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct
This is a key point because it helps define what Haugen's testimony has done today. She is launching what might be called the third phase of Facebook vs. democracy. Just some thoughts. . 1/
The first phase, pre-2016, was defined by Zuckerberg's defense of a platform filled with hate. He would always claim "FB (or "I", as he liked to say) shouldn't be in the business of deciding what is true or not." This seemed conceptually pleasing 2/
and had the benefit of making Zuck seem the reluctant power player. He didn't want that kind of power! We didn't want him to have that power! After 2016 -- election, hate, radicalization, foreign influence, security -- that was a hard defense to sustain. 3/
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
I wrote another book. I've been thinking of these ideas for years. This is a '21 plug for '22 publication @publicaffairs. It is called "The Devil Never Sleeps" and it rethinks disaster management for an era when disasters are no longer random or rare. 1/
publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/juliett…
The title comes from words I heard from a survivor of the 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado tragedy. Her faith helped her reimagine Joplin after so much death. But her faith wasn't a mere belief, hope; it was quite operational, tactical. 2/
"The devil never sleeps. But he only wins if we don't do better next time," she told me. Yes. Once we can all accept this lived reality - that the devil never sleeps -- then we can better prepare for when the next one comes, b/c it will come as will all the ones after that. 3/
Read 11 tweets

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