Thread by @althecat

This Prof. Tronvoll piece is indeed interesting, in part because Tronvoll like de Waal is more cheerleader and confidant commentator when it comes to the TPLF, and if read in that light the meaning can take on a different hue.

https://twitter.com/bronwynbruton/status/1475475742565842950

I tend to interpret his more sober than normal assessment of TPLF’s future fortunes (he has spent most of the year counting down to their victory), as being his way of expressing disappointment as a TPLF fanboi.

That said @BronwynBruton is right that the risk of an internal uprising against the TPLF is real if something resembling stasis ensues.

But the reality is that it isn’t. The TPLF has been attacking Afar already and by some accounts preparing another offensive in the West.

So let’s now look at some bits of this piece.

This bit intrigued me until I clicked the link and found a @RAbdiAnalyst tweet is the source. It’s still a bit intriguing though that Tronvoll thinks such backroom TPLF/US dealings are possible….

Tronvoll and Rashid Abdi’s closeness to the TPLF suggests to me that this is likely a reflection of TPLF wishful thinking. But it is of course of little consequence unless Ethiopia were willing to entertain such an idea.

One could speculate that this might be connected to the very poorly timed and unnecessarily premature AGOA announcement. TPLF had hoped initially it would get a no-fly zone from the UNSC, which was delusional.

For the TPLF to then step down and seek instead US pressure to force Ethiopia to agree to accept that they are a legitimate govt. in Tigray - and negotiate - might have seemed to someone in Washington to look like a compromise, with AGOA as the bargaining chip.

Pure speculation, but the AGOA announcement was rather odd and needs a better explanation than that provided by Envoy Jeffrey Feltman to NPR. [at the end of this >> npr.org/2021/12/26/106…]

This bit of Tronvoll’s musings is also interesting, again because we know that Debretsion’s threat is being deliberately telegraphed here. Tronvoll likely gave Debretsion a draft prior to publication.

Subtlety of expression is also not a strong suit for the TPLF and I read this as meaning that the ceasefire is about to be called off.

Probably for reasons of necessity with respect to TPLF maintaining power inside Tigray region.

The remarks about being starved are a bit rich here, but boilerplate TPLF narrative and could explain the ongoing TPLF attacks and associated disinformation op underway in Ab’ala Afar.

See thread here… (it’s a little confusing, but that’s SOP with TPLF info warfare ops)

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1475289747799085058

The TPLF strategy with the Afar road to Semara that runs through Ab’ala is less complicated.

1. Attack the road
2. Block the road
3. Accuse Ethiopia of starving Tigray
4. Solicit statements condemning Ethiopia from UN/EU/US.

As for the second para in this passage, Tronvoll is right. There is little to no chance of the Ethiopian govt. agreeing to TPLF demands at this point in the play. They have no leverage.

And if the TPLF do announce their intention to mount a new offensive, or simply launch one under cover of the NY as some expect, then they will place their IC supporters/enablers in an increasingly difficult position in maintaining their support.

This final passage from near the end of Tronvoll’s conjecture is pure Norwegian trolling, and closer to his usual snide, one sided, accusatory tone.

It is an acknowledgment however that @AbiyAhmedAli currently holds all the cards.