#ArabianStorms Update Thread:

A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
Here's a video of some of that rain falling last night.
This animation shows the Gulf Coast end of the storm over night. The rain will have been continuous but radar data flow to @Zoom_Earth appears to be patchy.
This image shows the full extent of the rain as measured by @Meteoblue at 6pm last night. The blank patches with sharp edges are also data errors.

This area of storm rainfall appears to have been close to twice the size of Turkey at its height, covering most of Iraq.
I have noted earlier in this series on this unusual #DesertRain event that rain forecasts for this region tend to significantly under forecast the size and intensity of rain events.
This shows a 24 hour view of the rain/storm activity in Saudi Arabia adjacent to the red sea coast. Medina and Makkah both received significant heavy rainfall.

And (as mentioned above) the storm will not have stopped and started as indicated in the radar data feed.
Rain intensity may have reduced during the day though. So far we are definitely seeing the most intense falls during the night. Here we see views at 1am, 3am and 7am. Forecasts indicated that the heaviest rains are expected along the Iran-Iraq Border and the Iranian Gulf coast.
Again here is a rough measurement of the area which appears to have received rain last night. 1.8 million km2.
Actual weather observations a fairly hard to come by unfortunately - if you are aware of a good source for rainfall data please let me know.

This Kuwait twitter account does provide hourly readings. Rain is falling at roughly 4mm an hour their now. twitter.com/KuwaitMet
Here is a 72 hour (3 day) water vapour transport forecast. In which the big news appears to be headed south from Europe towards Egypt's. This brings cold dry air with it which will keep the rain coming in phase 2 of this event through to January 4th.
Here is the forecast for phase two as posted on Christmas Eve.
And here is an update - again showing the forecast through to January 4th.. The key difference is that the storm coming in from the north is significantly stronger than forecast, carrying more water and energy than originally forecast.

Cairo receives lots of rain in this update.
And here we see an updated rain forecast for the same period.

As the original forecast (Dec 24 - quoted tweet) showed little rain in the first week the comparison is close but not precise.
This view of the phenomena compares what we are seeing with climate norms from 1981-2010. As i have said before, while we have had some interesting, spectacular monsoon bursts this year over Arabia, there has been nothing remotely like this.
These four plots show us what the GFS weather model is currently predicting to be the situation on January14th.
1. PWAT Anom
2. PWAT Raw
3. Water Transport (includes MSLP)
4. Accumulated Rain.
الله أعلم
/ENDS

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More from @althecat

31 Dec
Selective reporting plus selective quoting make for an interesting melange. @LaurenBinDC’s cognitive dissonance echoes loudly in this thread.

She fails to mention for example that @1_filsan didn’t resign till September.
Meanwhile the @washingtonpost’s report fails to mention that the Govt of Ethiopia convened not only the task force that Filsan ran to establish the truth early in the war, which clearly was not the reason for her resignation, but also prosecuted offenders in military courts.
This interview addresses that core issue and #Washpo / @maxbearak’s failure to even mention that this took place - it may be ongoing - is journalistic malpractice given current heightened levels concern about US media reporting.
Read 17 tweets
30 Dec
So here we have a Western academic, European, telling Ethiopia that unless it accepts two terrorist groups as participants in a planned national dialogue, that dialogue is worthless, just symbolic.

Interesting take.
This particular scholar has been talking all manner of nonsense lately. His conduct reflects poorly on the institutions he names in his Twitter bio.

The effort to bring peace to Ethiopia after hopefully silencing the guns is nascent, barely begun.
And this scholar dismisses it out of hand.
Read 5 tweets
29 Dec
#WeirdWeather

In the North of the North Pacific up near Alaska there is a very large area of clear Ocean that that can be seen through the clouds which looks a little like a giant rotating eye. ImageImageImage
Here we see it in context along side North America, and the entire rotating high-pressure area appears to be roughly the size of North America. Its presence appears to be contributing to the big freeze in Canada and all the snow in the US.
The image above shows the #EyeOfThePacific on December 26-27.

And here we see it on December 27-28. At the bottom of the animations you can see the onshore atmospheric river flows which are bringing massive rains to California, and moisture to the midwest and north east.
Read 13 tweets
29 Dec
Unfortunately @LaurenBinDC I can't reply happy to explain/discuss with you, and even answer your questions. But you will need to follow me.
Q: Remind me, what brought you to tweeting so intensely about Horn politics this year?

A: I am a reporter of politics, climate and international relations and editor of Scoop.co.nz. Initially it was climate & the GERD that brought me to the horn.
Q: Does it pay well?

A: No, I have a publication of my own. And I would not accept payment for journalism work. It is rewarding work though. Addressing a monumental injustice, global importance.
Read 4 tweets
28 Dec
Massive flooding in North East Brazil, kills at least 20.

Dams burst in Brazil as deadly flooding continues - BBC News via @YouTube
Following closely after massive flooding in Malaysia.
Here's the first 24 hours of the Malaysian Flooding event beginning on December 16th.
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec
Latest @NOAA GFS model runs show no end to the stormy weather over the Middle East within the 16 day long-range forecast window. Here we see accumulated rainfall by Jan 12th.
Here's a North Africa wide overnight update to 10am this morning of satellite presentation of this.
And Middle East satellite presentation today.
Read 17 tweets

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