Latest @NOAA GFS model runs show no end to the stormy weather over the Middle East within the 16 day long-range forecast window. Here we see accumulated rainfall by Jan 12th.
Here's a North Africa wide overnight update to 10am this morning of satellite presentation of this.
And Middle East satellite presentation today.
Final over night update is of the Amazon, the western seeding location of the airborn moisture behind these unusually intense December Arabian Peninsula rain forecasts.
Here's a special long range weather forecast broadcast on Christmas Day by Arabia Weather.
Saudi Special Newsletter | The last details of the forecast for the rainy situation this week via @YouTube
Today's rain fall was mainly in the Egyptian Desert according to @Meteoblue here we see a time sequence beginning at 9am.
... and ending at 9pm this evening. @zoom_earth's radar data feed from the region appears to not be available today.
@zoom_earth Here's the latest 16 day accumulating rainfall forecast in full from the GFS3 model through to January 12th.
This is the corresponding PWAT (Water Vapour/Energy) simulation.
And finally, the most revealing of all the simulations the integrated water transport plot. Here we can see five consecutive bursts of intense aerial moisture coming over the Middle East in 16 days, roughly one every three days.
Finally to sign off. This is a near live image from @Meteoblue showing rainfall over Egypt right now, including light rain over most of Cairo.
A snapshot of the storms over the Middle East at their peak last night. The larger area of storms (as identified by weather radar) near the Gulf is the size of Germany. The smaller one over Mecca is twice the size of Switzerland.
Here's a video of some of that rain falling last night.
This animation shows the Gulf Coast end of the storm over night. The rain will have been continuous but radar data flow to @zoom_earth appears to be patchy.
Q: Remind me, what brought you to tweeting so intensely about Horn politics this year?
A: I am a reporter of politics, climate and international relations and editor of Scoop.co.nz. Initially it was climate & the GERD that brought me to the horn.
Q: Does it pay well?
A: No, I have a publication of my own. And I would not accept payment for journalism work. It is rewarding work though. Addressing a monumental injustice, global importance.
This Prof. Tronvoll piece is indeed interesting, in part because Tronvoll like de Waal is more cheerleader and confidant commentator when it comes to the TPLF, and if read in that light the meaning can take on a different hue.
I tend to interpret his more sober than normal assessment of TPLF’s future fortunes (he has spent most of the year counting down to their victory), as being his way of expressing disappointment as a TPLF fanboi.
That said @BronwynBruton is right that the risk of an internal uprising against the TPLF is real if something resembling stasis ensues.
But the reality is that it isn’t. The TPLF has been attacking Afar already and by some accounts preparing another offensive in the West.
There were two special guests in that @twitterspace room @Afarfederalist and @Abrar577191701 both new accounts, associated with each other it seems, and associated with an Afar TPLF aligned colonel and his clan.
On Saturday 18th December, the day following the @UNHumanRights meeting in Geneva Abala was attacked. This video records eyewitness/victim testimony about what happened.
It appears TPLF’s propagandists are now claiming that the Afar attacked themselves, or that the ENDF did (as they claimed with Galicoma), after realising, too late, that their latest attacks might prove to be a last straw for their IC enablers.
The TPLF have been attacking the Abala Mekelle road repeatedly for months as part of their @WFP@USAID truck, fuel and aid appropriation - for troop transport, supply and looting purposes - scam.