Thread by @McFaul

After 9/11/2001, Bush and Putin developed a close personal bond based on a shared definition of a common threat -- terrorism. US-Russia ties were close. The US withdrawal from the ABM treaty and NATO expansion faded as contentious issues. 1/

Bush's decision to invade Iraq fueled new tensions. Putin (like Germany, France & Obama) thought that intervention was a huge mistake. At their first meeting in 2009, Putin reminded Obama of that mistake. 2/

The real break in US-Russia relations in the Bush-era were color revolutions in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004, which Putin claimed were masterminded by Washington. 3/

In the Obama-Medvedev era, a new era of cooperation occurred -- New START, NDN, sanctions in Iran, cooperation on Kyrgyzstan "color revolution", Russian membership into WTO, etc. 4/

It ended because Putin blamed the U.S. again for supporting color revolutions, first in the Arab world in 2011, then Russia 2011, then Ukraine 2013-2014. (Medvedev supported US use of force in Libya, btw) 5/

Not without reason, Putin fears popular movements in support of democracy. That's the central threat to his regime. NATO is an annoyance, but a much lesser threat to Putin's regime. 6/ END