📣 NEW: If I understand the @NCHStats data correctly, White people have made up 70% of all U.S. COVID deaths since June (w/important caveats re. weighting): acasignups.net/21/12/28/nchs-…
UPDATE: The weighting done by @NCHStats appears to be *age-adjusted* for each category. While I understand why they do that, I'm not sure it's relevant when it comes to political impact 1/
It may be true that White people are dying at a higher rate because they also tend to be older...but that doesn't change the fact that they're dying. If 10 80-yr old GOP voters die of COVID, you don't "adjust" that down to 6 fewer GOP votes just because they were old. 2/2
STORY UPDATED to note @NCHStats' "age standardization" as well as to note today's @nytimes article which also kind of/sort of includes some of the same data (and no, neither they nor I knew of each other's work on the same data): acasignups.net/21/12/28/nchs-…
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My "White people make up 70% of U.S. COVID deaths since June" post has come under fire because I didn't weight the racial groups by age. U.S. seniors are massively overrepresented by White people, so if you weight it by age they drop to like 40%. 1/
I agree this is true, and I understand why it's important to weight by age/etc. when formulating public health policies and the like.
HOWEVER, I don't understand is why this changes the bottom line: That White people are dying of COVID at disproportionately high rate since June.
Let's take this to an absurd extreme: Let's say that 100% of White Americans were 80 yrs old, and 100% of every other racial group was 25 years old. If that were the situation, you'd expect something like 95% of COVID deaths to be among White people, right? 3/
Here's what U.S. COVID deaths have looked like broken out by racial/ethnic group for each month since March 2020 according to @NCHStats data.
The December bracket runs through 12/18.
The dotted lines show each group's portion of the total U.S. population.
NOTE: I discuss this in the blog post, but since several brought it up, I’ll reiterate it here as well: This is WITHOUT adjusting for the fact that White people also make up a disproportionate portion of senior citizens. When you adjust for age it drops significantly. 1/