Here's what U.S. COVID deaths have looked like broken out by racial/ethnic group for each month since March 2020 according to @NCHStats data.
The December bracket runs through 12/18.
The dotted lines show each group's portion of the total U.S. population.
NOTE: I discuss this in the blog post, but since several brought it up, I’ll reiterate it here as well: This is WITHOUT adjusting for the fact that White people also make up a disproportionate portion of senior citizens. When you adjust for age it drops significantly. 1/
Having said that, seniors are also FAR more likely to be fully vaccinated and (I presume) to wear masks, socially distance, etc. Adjusting for age helps explain WHY they’re dying at a higher rate but it doesn’t change the fact that they are, which was my only point.
As I noted previously: If, say, 100 elderly White voters and 50 young Black voters die in the same precinct, you don’t adjust the lost votes among the first group down to 60 to account for the fact that White people tend to live a lot longer. 100 of them still died.
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My "White people make up 70% of U.S. COVID deaths since June" post has come under fire because I didn't weight the racial groups by age. U.S. seniors are massively overrepresented by White people, so if you weight it by age they drop to like 40%. 1/
I agree this is true, and I understand why it's important to weight by age/etc. when formulating public health policies and the like.
HOWEVER, I don't understand is why this changes the bottom line: That White people are dying of COVID at disproportionately high rate since June.
Let's take this to an absurd extreme: Let's say that 100% of White Americans were 80 yrs old, and 100% of every other racial group was 25 years old. If that were the situation, you'd expect something like 95% of COVID deaths to be among White people, right? 3/
📣 NEW: If I understand the @NCHStats data correctly, White people have made up 70% of all U.S. COVID deaths since June (w/important caveats re. weighting): acasignups.net/21/12/28/nchs-…
UPDATE: The weighting done by @NCHStats appears to be *age-adjusted* for each category. While I understand why they do that, I'm not sure it's relevant when it comes to political impact 1/
It may be true that White people are dying at a higher rate because they also tend to be older...but that doesn't change the fact that they're dying. If 10 80-yr old GOP voters die of COVID, you don't "adjust" that down to 6 fewer GOP votes just because they were old. 2/2