RIP

The 2010 elections were during my first semester of college. I remember watching the returns on Election Night and seeing this image -- I jumped up and yelled at my (apolitical) roommate "HARRY REID WON!!" Image
I thought he would pull it out, but that he'd barely squeak by -- he ended up wining by almost 6 points, taking a majority of the vote.
This is a good video with some of his best and funniest lines.

My favorite:

Reid says "Brad Pitt was at the Capitol one day for an event. When they said to stand for pictures, I said "How are they gonna tell us apart?"

He usually had competitive races, but the easiest Senate contest he had was in 2004. Though he wasn't seriously challenged, Reid only lost the Cow Counties (the state minus Clark and Washoe counties) by 137 votes. Pretty impressive. Image
That 2004 race came 6 years after his closest race, 1998. He held off then-Rep. John Ensign by 428 votes. Nevada only had two districts then. Ensign represented NV-1 (the urban one), which Reid carried 55%-41% -- but Reid also kept NV-2 relatively close (within single-digits). Image
The 1998 race was essentially the genesis of the now-famous "Reid Machine," as @ZacMcCrary and @RalstonReports discussed in this podcast earlier this year.
Also, for some reason, I saved this image from the 2010 campaign.

Early in the cycle, Reid was down double-digits to Rs in some polls. Then Sue Lowden started talking about trading chickens for healthcare and Sharron Angle (a wacky, tea party R) started rising in the primary. Image
What I mean: at this point in the 2010 cycle (basically late 2009) it was looking *rough* for Reid. Then as the R primary began going off the rails, he posted leads in mid-2010.

uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2… Image
A few years after the 2010 election, I was watching a video with Penn & Teller (the magicians based in Las Vegas).

Penn says something like, "Yeah, Harry Reid is kinda a jerk, but his opponent was some lunatic who NO ONE could vote for."
Reid also knew when to retire, as the CCM handoff worked.

In the book Last Great Senate, Warren Magnuson, then 75 and running for a 7th term in 1980, struggled to shake donors' hands at a DC event. Edmund Muskie saw this and told a staffer "Don't let me stay too long like that."

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More from @JMilesColeman

31 Dec 21
During this last year, I’ve had several on this site ask me for political book recommendations.

I said I’d put together a thread by the end of the year, so as promised, here are some books I’ve read (or gotten decently into) in 2021.

I’ll say it’s sort of heavy on biography.
Tuesday Night Massacre by @TheJohnsonPost

Focuses on four key Senate races in 1980; really gives you a sense of where the modern congressional campaign came from. amazon.com/Tuesday-Night-…
When Hell Froze Over by @DwayneYancey

Looks at Doug Wilder’s historic statewide runs in 1985 and 1989. With the #VAGov race this year, I wanted to read it — it’s still very relevant to VA politics. amazon.com/When-Hell-Froz…
Read 12 tweets
31 Dec 21
Thanks to @vest_team for putting out Mississippi data! I did this quickly, but this is Espy (blue) vs Biden (red). Espy did almost 7 points better -- his overperformance stood out in northwest MS (ancestral Dem), and not as much in the Delta (which he used to represent). Image
Espy also ran (relatively) well ahead of Biden along the Gulf Coast
Espy 🤝 Carter

Overperforming in northern MS
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec 21
Four gubernatorial rating changes from @kkondik and me today:

MD: Leans D -> Likely D
MN: Likely D -> Leans D
NV: Leans D -> Toss-up
NM: Likely D -> Leans D

Also, notes on some races we *didn't* change over here: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
We note in the article that we have a pretty broad Leans D category: MI is closer to the Toss-up end of that, but, say, MN is closer to Likely. In an great environment, Rs could flip most (maybe all) of those, but they still have work do in some of them.
Read 5 tweets
8 Dec 21
The Harrisburg area 😬 Image
not surprisingly, the first two complaints on the portal are about CDs 6 and 11 app.mydistricting.com/legdistricting…
Proposed PA-8 is Trump by just over 8 points, while PA-7 matches the state (Biden by 1.2%). Image
Read 5 tweets
16 Nov 21
OH-9 is a bit friendlier to Kaptur than in some other drafts; it would be Trump by about 4% last year.
Corday +3, Brown +16, Trump +2 (2016)
30 years ago, that OH-14 would be a great seat for Dennis Eckart.
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov 21
i dont think (Phil) Scott runs for Senate, but this pic is a lot of my TL todat
Read 4 tweets

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