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jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

29 Nov

#Nifty EPS (Dec’19) = 563. Nifty was trading around 12000 (21x TTM PE) in Feb 20. After corona, it crashed to 7500. Assuming similar PE, market factored in 30%-40% EPS contraction for Dec’20. In reality, EPS contracted only 14% (Dec’20 EPS = 483)

Today if another corona wave

comes, we are much better prepared, lesser uncertainty and India is best placed among all the geographies. Last time, world assumed India would collapse given the size and population, but we did far better..

Nifty earnings have improved significantly in last year and

it gained momentum in last two qtrs where qtr eps is around 200... Dec 21 EPS estimate is 750

Even in worst case, IT, pharma (20% weight) will support earnings.. So Dec 22 EPS cannot be less than 850..

In best case, PE could be 25 & worse case 20.. So Nifty to remain between

Read 4 tweets

jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

12 Nov

#Lauruslabs

There’s lot of confusion and concers around whats happening in Laurus and I thought of putting my view

There are two main concerns
1.RM costs – this is universal to all pharma companies, but eventually will get sorted
2.ARV sales – this seems the bigger concern.

Because of regimen change (Efavirenz to Dolutegravir) and 30-day to 90-day pack, governments are in process of clearing the inventory which caused sales to go down. This may continue for a quarter more, but Q4 looks good..

Some might feel, funding may divert to Covid.

Global funds are for 5 years, it is a must medicine, so I don’t think, funding can divert or stop

Some are drawing conclusions from Q2 Aurobindo ARV sales. Pls understand LL is last man standing being lowest cost producer. Even if the market shrinks, other players may opt out,

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jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

6 Oct

There is no easy money in stock market

It’s really worrisome to know that many people are coming in the stock market for short term trading after this bull market rally. Came across many young minds who are ignoring their core competency and focusing on trading.

Don’t extrapolate post-corona market returns. This was aberration, abnormal, unusual. Its impossible to earn similar returns every year.

Focus on your core competency and career. Trading will ruin both your career and wealth

Music doesn’t last long. Invest in building your

core competencies like programming skills or engineering skills. That will only help you in long run

I am very bullish on India but trading is not the way to play the India growth story. Only Investing can create serious wealth in long run.

Read 8 tweets

jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

4 Sep

#Ajmerarealty - project execution, faster land monetization and profit visibility can re-rate stock

MMR remains the best market for RE in India because of good demand, realisations and limited supply.

Ajmera realty has got 20 Mn sq ft development potential similar to Oberoi

This is fully owned and completely paid for as against Oberoi where part of it is under JDA and DM model.

Both are MMR focused players.

Oberoi generated 1650 cr projects revenue, 322 cr rentals in FY21. Ajmera will have similar P&L after 5 years with almost 1500 cr project

revenue and 300 cr rentals

MCap of Oberoi is 27500 cr wheras Ajmera is only 1250 crs.

Ajmera has 3 Mn sq ft resi and 3 Mn sq ft commercial in Wadala and 12.5 Mn sq ft in Kanjur marg. It is readying project pipeline to monetize current land bank and looking for more JDA and DM

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jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

8 Jul

#IBullreal – top pick in the sector. Brand, Balance sheet, execution and access to low cost funds will drive value for the combined entity

Post merger, #Embassy will own 45% and Blackstone 10%. This will create institutional platform for investment in real estate sector and

combined entity will be one of the largest real estate companies in India.

In terms of valuation, 18000 cr net surplus, 2000 acres of land valued around 8-10 crs per acre, 1400 crs SEZ land, 42 Mn sq ft commercial space (potential of generating 4200 crs rentals) available at EV

of # 15000 crs. More importantly, with Embassy+Blackstone brand, execution capability and access to institutional money will re-rate the stock to earnings based multiple rather than asset based valuation.

Concerns –
-If Merger doesn’t happen – Currently only NCLT approval is

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jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

7 Jul

#RealEstate – story of structural reforms. Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value

Last 8-10 years, real estate sector faced multiple challenges with huge inventory build-up, demand slow down, liquidity crunch, drying source of funds..

Sector has given very lackluster performance for these years, but dynamics are now changing with reforms done by the government like GST and RERA. Demonetisation was actually negative for the sector in the short run but for long term, it proved to be a boon.

These structural reforms cleanup the sector with 70% competition gone, market share shifted from unorganized to organized players.

Brand, Balance sheet, Execution and access to low cost funds will drive the value in the sector henceforth.

Customer preference has shifted from

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