But traders and strategists say that some hedge funds are wagering that the yield curve will not flatten much more. ... Kavi Gupta, Bank of America’s co-head of rates trading, said that funds were indeed “still in steepeners”
3/5
A reminder of how the steepening trade has worked out for hedge funds so far
The yield curve has not stopped narrowing since late October, making a new 14-month narrow just yesterday.
Good luck to all the "masters of the universe" that think the path to riches is double-down on losing ideas.
That's always worked out well in the past.
Bonus #1
This "doubling-down" on curve steepeners fits with what I see ...
The consensus, which includes hedge fund managers, still believes that inflation is transitory, the Fed will not hike as much as priced in, and Omicron is a non-event.
Bonus #2
So, even though yield curve steepeners has been a bad idea to date, they are convinced if they keep at it long enough, inflation will subside, the Fed will back off the rate hikes, the yield curve will do a massive wheelie (steepen) ...
... and they will all get rich!
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Not the "wealthy" working from home chortling on twitter about their stock portfolio rocketing higher.
It was the "poor," the 40% of the country that rents and has less than $1,000 in savings, that was devastated by this policy.
3/4
Meanwhile, in other news, economists still cannot figure out why consumer confidence is at a 10-year low, and still worse than the April 2020 lockdown readings.
On Monday the number of COVID cases in the U.S. spiked as labs reopened after the holiday. While this is more a technical spike due to labs catching up from previous days, the seven-day moving average is on the verge of making a new high.
2/7
We have argued policy is a reaction function of rising cases. During this wave, imposed restrictions would mostly result in lost workdays as millions are following government guidelines and isolating.
This chart shows 2.04M tested positive in the past 10-days. If we assume 75% are in the workforce (few under 18 test positive), then 1.04% of the workforce is currently “out” with a positive test.
So, the effective unemployment rate just spiked 1.04% in the last 10-days.
More tests, read positives, are coming in Jan:
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"One of the problems is that that's not going to be totally available to everyone until we get to January, and there are still some issues now of people having trouble getting tested," Fauci told ABC
2/7
Brown bars are the weekend. Many testing centers and labs are closed Sat/Sun which is why positive results dip.
Yesterday was not only a weekend, but it was also Christmas Day.
Yet, the number of positive results soared to 131k, the highest Saturday since last January.
3/7
Most European countries reported zero yesterday, including the UK (source: Johns Hopkins).
The actual positives not reported yesterday, when everyone is caught up, will be added to subsequent days as history is not revised.