1/4

Incredible admission by the CDC today on the devastation they inflicted on the country.

2/4

Who did this hurt the last 21-months?

Not the "wealthy" working from home chortling on twitter about their stock portfolio rocketing higher.

It was the "poor," the 40% of the country that rents and has less than $1,000 in savings, that was devastated by this policy.
3/4

Meanwhile, in other news, economists still cannot figure out why consumer confidence is at a 10-year low, and still worse than the April 2020 lockdown readings.
4/4

Also, I'm sure this had nothing whatsoever to do with bad PCR tests telling the poor they had to stay isolated for an additional 12-weeks.

spiked-online.com/2021/12/09/the…

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More from @biancoresearch

29 Dec
1/5

What do you do if you're a hedge fund that has been burned badly by the yield curve flattening? Why you double-down on the same bet!

ft.com/content/bc799a… (
2/5

From the story above ...

But traders and strategists say that some hedge funds are wagering that the yield curve will not flatten much more. ... Kavi Gupta, Bank of America’s co-head of rates trading, said that funds were indeed “still in steepeners”
3/5

A reminder of how the steepening trade has worked out for hedge funds so far

October 27
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Read 7 tweets
28 Dec
1/7

On Monday the number of COVID cases in the U.S. spiked as labs reopened after the holiday. While this is more a technical spike due to labs catching up from previous days, the seven-day moving average is on the verge of making a new high.
2/7

We have argued policy is a reaction function of rising cases. During this wave, imposed restrictions would mostly result in lost workdays as millions are following government guidelines and isolating.

The WSJ is making this exact argument today.

wsj.com/articles/omicr…
3/7

This chart shows 2.04M tested positive in the past 10-days. If we assume 75% are in the workforce (few under 18 test positive), then 1.04% of the workforce is currently “out” with a positive test.

So, the effective unemployment rate just spiked 1.04% in the last 10-days.
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec
1/5

With a week to go, the US Aggregate bond market total-return is tracking its third worst year ever.

Data begins in 1976
2/5

Also, with a week to go, the total-return of the 2-year note is tracking its worst year ever, and it first lost ever.

Data goes back t 1973.

(Just ask all the macro hedge funds that got rekted by the carry trade/flattening curve in 2H this year).
3/5

And with a week left in the year, the total-return of the 5-year note is tracking its third-worst year ever.

Data goes back to 1979.
Read 5 tweets
26 Dec
1/7

news.yahoo.com/fauci-vows-mor…

More tests, read positives, are coming in Jan:
-
"One of the problems is that that's not going to be totally available to everyone until we get to January, and there are still some issues now of people having trouble getting tested," Fauci told ABC
2/7

Brown bars are the weekend. Many testing centers and labs are closed Sat/Sun which is why positive results dip.

Yesterday was not only a weekend, but it was also Christmas Day.

Yet, the number of positive results soared to 131k, the highest Saturday since last January.
3/7

Most European countries reported zero yesterday, including the UK (source: Johns Hopkins).

The actual positives not reported yesterday, when everyone is caught up, will be added to subsequent days as history is not revised.

So, expect a big spike next week.
Read 7 tweets
26 Dec
1/4

For the 5th consecutive day, no gas from Russia.

Data goes backs a decade and this is the first five-day streak of no gas.

And it is completely unprecedented to have no gas in winter (seasonal chart).

@DoombergT
2/4

Russia is now gaslighting the situation ... it is a "lie" that no gas is going to Europe, got that!!

rt.com/russia/544414-…
3/4

Meanwhile European gas storage is down to 56%, way below the typically range seen in late December.

56% storage is something usually seen in early February.
Read 4 tweets
24 Dec
1/6

Day three and no gas from Russia.

As the seasonal chart shows 2021 (shaded) this is way below the typical flows seen this time of year.

@DoombergT
2/6

Bigger picture gas flows are way down from what was typical over the last decade.
3/6

Euro storage is 58% full, 10% below the record low on this date.

Euro storage bottoms in late March. The record was 18%. Since they are already about 10% below this, could it dip under 10% this season?

Cold winter = 0% storage?

Remember Russian gas flows are now zero.
Read 6 tweets

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