-new money enters the ecosystem
-gas fees drop thanks to ETH2 upgrades
-L2s gain adoption
-NFT utility adds more creative incentives beyond speculation
-UX abstracts away barriers to entry
Blue Chips
Half of the current top 10 NFT projects will crater in value as the attention economy is divided by new entrants and amply-funded marketing campaigns.
The ones that survive will experience volatility, but significantly increase in value.
Disruption is guaranteed.
SOL Adoption
SOL will explode in H1 as devs start deploying projects they’ve spent the past several months building.
When it comes to infrastructure, the ETH ecosystem had a massive head start on SOL. That gap is closing quickly.
L2 + Cross-Chain Adoption
MATIC, TEZOS, ATOM, IMX, DOT and others will thrive as dev activity and ease of network access improves.
Price will fluctuate and begin to settle post-ETH2 upgrades. L1s + L2s will not go away—we are entering a modular blockchain ecosystem.
The Rise of Verticals
From hobbyist communities of foodies, to healthcare operators, to wine collectors, tokenized communities will build rich, durable ecosystems. Participants will benefit from networks, education, and community.
The lines between NFTs and defi will become further blurred through gamification, airdrops, and staking models as early adopters recognize the opportunity and familiarize themselves with processes.
In 2022, DEXs and CEXs will begin to look more like social networks.
Social Investing
Web3 streamlines investing by reducing manual processes like spreadsheet mgmt + signature collection.
It also acts as a social record—startups like @PartyRound will build networks around such activity.
Crypto will become a wedge issue, leveraged by candidates to attract their opponent’s supporters. For many voters, crypto policy will be a deciding factor.
Meanwhile, the Biden admin will push for sweeping regulation and increased centralization to “protect consumers.”
Vertical Marketplaces
NFT projects will shift towards DTC marketplaces like @larvalabs and @SolanaMBS. Managing user experience is critical for retention, and eliminating 3rd parties doesn’t hurt.
We’ll see dozens of airdrops that leverage blockchain user data, with few offering any real utility.
Most will be cash grabs that benefit whales and line developer pockets. The ones used for meaningful, balanced DAO governance will retain value.
Web2 Enters the Chat
Public companies will be forced to make moves—they’ll buy communities (Nike + RTFKT), or create their own worlds (Meta).
Netflix will explore NFT utility. Visa may buy a wallet app. Apple and Google will make tough decisions re: web3 apps + integrations.
Decentralized Social Networks
Social feeds built on block activity like @context will surge, forcing heritage platforms to explore steps towards decentralization, like increasing 3rd party interoperability to enable a broader range of user experiences
Twitter will lead the way.
Smart Contracts
The benefits of block security and its ability to trigger transactions via oracles will accelerate the adoption of web3 legal services and contract development.
A DocuSign killer (or acquisition target) will be built in 2022, if it hasn’t already.
Wallet to Wallet Messaging
Secure W2W DMs will inevitably go mainstream as users create demand. If I need to contact someone squatting on my ENS, how do I go about it? Send them a bid on OpenSea, hoping they see it?
If you think you’ve seen enough cringe brand NFTs, I’ve got bad news for you.
On the flip side, we’ll see innovation and more meaningful brand loyalty plays based that reward customer cohorts and top community contributors.
Utility will come to the fore.
Web3 Reviews
As more people enter the space, and more projects create noise, decentralized review aggregators (think Rotten Tomatoes for web3) will help inform trust gaps.
Contract safety audits, app and NFT community reviews, and more.
Talent Shortage
The demand for developers will outpace growth of the talent pool, leading to astronomical prices.
Web3 developers will demand some of the highest salaries and flexible operating terms in the market.
They are at the fore of this technology, and they deserve it.
Gaming
The gaming community will largely resist NFT adoption, but slowly get redpilled as most of the crypto experience is abstracted away and they are simply able to trade and own their digital goods.
Thought leaders that embrace adoption will skyrocket in popularity.
With so much promise of disruption, it’s clear we are still building foundational layers for web3.
Being this early is a blessing. It’s an opportunity to create the future we want to see. Whether you agree with these predictions or not, it’s the freedom to imagine that matters.
For more tweetstorms on the future of web3, follow me @chriscantino. Thx for reading.
Lmk your predictions in the comments!
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1/ A game plan for profiting off NFTs during this boom. 🧵
2/ First, chasing millions is meaningless, and will not bring you happiness. If you get into NFTs to flip quick money, you will be disappointed.
NFTs are booming rn, but it won’t last forever. Only spend what you are willing to lose.
3/ Even experts take huge Ls. This ecosystem is volatile and changes quickly enough that I am never 100% confident, despite having gained significant capital, experience, and risk tolerance.
Still, there are investing frameworks I find helpful.
1/ I’m not a trad VC. Came from nothing, been f*cked by investors. So I get it when I see the rejection of VC by web3 insiders. VC has problems.
But there's a strong case for building bridges instead of burning them.
Let’s redefine the role of VC to meet the needs of web3. 🧵
2/ First of all, plenty of web3 companies won’t need venture $$$. From Poolsuite to OpenDAO, bootstrapping community capital will be an obvious option.
These new models will experience growing pains, but activating skin in the game for communities fundamentally derisks projects.
3/ But there’s another class of businesses that need VC to shoot their shots. Especially the cash-intensive ones, if they want any chance at scale.
And let’s not minimized the value and resources of traditional capital networks.
1/ A playbook for launching successful NFT collections. 🧵
2/ NFTs are hard. From technical implementation, to marketing, to fostering a community, there are dozens of steps to manage. And ignoring any one of them can tank your brand.
Let’s dive deep, starting from ideation all the way to post-launch execution.
3/ Identify your vision
Root it in what makes you, you. If you’ve been developing expertise for years, lean in. It’s the only way to earn confidence in your project.
Could be your professional experience, art, gaming, defi, community… whatever. Just own it. Broadcast it.
2/ It's 2021, and people are unlocking unprecedented value in communities. The kind you would never sell.
And with the additional financial and social incentives enabled by web3, the benefit of finding your tribe has never been so rewarding.
We are entering a renaissance.
3/ Creating that kind of value is one of the most difficult things you can accomplish. It is a delicate balancing act, and you are competing in a fierce attention economy.
In my opinion, it it more difficult than building any startup.