Next big debate in Alberta is whether schools should open again in 6 days. It's a tough one, balancing the role of schools in contributing to community spread, and longCOVID in kids, vs. equity with challenges in keeping kids at home for many parents 1/
Yesterday Premier Kenney continued to promote the myth that "in-class transmission has not been a major source of community transmission in Alberta and elsewhere" (timestamp 33:01) 2/
In reality the 4th #intentionallycruelwave was driven entirely by the unvaccinated in the 5-11 age group, as seen by AB Health's data. And we enter the January school period with most of these kids unvaccinated, still only 34% with one shot, inadequate protection for omicron. 3/
I think we need to recognize that even if we push forward with schools opening, the inadequate masks, ventilation, filtration, and lunch policies will result in schools being shortly overwhelmed and closed anyway, probably due to plentiful teachers/admins falling ill. 4/
We know other jurisdictions a few weeks ahead of us are seeing exponential growth of paediatric hospitalizations for COVID. We still don't know what the potential for LongCOVID in kids (or adults) is with Omicron. We don't know... a lot. 5/
So, I think it is wise to have a period of online school. Use the time to covid proof our schools, procuring high quality masks, doing ventilation assessments, installing HEPA filters where needed, and developing safe(ish) lunch/snack policies. 6/
This is a predictable virus. We know, via math and epidemiology, what will happen if we force schools to open in the midst of this tsunami of Omicron. Let's use the precautionary principle to protect our kids, and our society. And use policy to support parents and families. fin/
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Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Dec 29th. I'll focus on the last 24 hours, and throw in a whole bunch of caveats, because some of this data is not as useful as it used to be. 1/
Cases/d yest 2800, a new pandemic record, and a % incr over last Tues's 1359. Except this data point is nowhere close as useful to a similar cases/d at any previous time of the pandemic, as evidenced by the record positivity of 29.88% (last Tues 11.89%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts.From a low of 261 on Sat, up +5 to 266 on Sun, +14 to 280 on Mon, and +12 to 292 yest. Not sure how useful this is, b/c it is unclear if all these new admits are pts admitted because of covid, or other reasons and just testing +ve incidentally. 3/
It's time for a little walk down the path called "what wave is this?". About naming the 3rd, 4th, and now 5th waves. And why it's important. 1/
it began with the 3rd wave. Our leaders oblivious despite having evidence from previous waves of how exponential growth worked, making it predictable, and how to stop it through mitigation policies, making it preventable. #predictableandpreventablewave. 2/
Then the fourth wave. The attempt to cause herd immunity by allowing it to run rampant through our population, especially the kids. And h/t to @sarahkendzior and @AndreaChalupa for pointing out that cruelty is the purpose. The #intentionallycruelwave 3/
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Tues Dec 11th. 1/
Cases yest 818, a 195% incr over last Mon's 277. 7d ave now 601 a 93.2% incr week over wk from 311 (Yest 70.8% fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 11.05% (last Mon 4.56%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Thurs -10 to 281 (revised from 280 yest and 276 Fri) Fri -7 to 274 (revised from 273 yest), Sat -20 to 254 (revised from 253 yest), Sun +5 to 259 (revised from 255). Yest +1 to 255 (subj to revision). ICU unchanged at 69. 3/
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Mon Dec 20th, covering Fri/Sat/Sun. TLDR: Omicron is going to wreck your holidays. 1/
Cases/d: Fri 630, a 101.2%% incr from last Fri's 313. Sat 724, 177.4% up from 261. Sun 580, up 190% from 200. 7d ave now 527, up 70.8% from last week's 305 (fri 23.9%, Thurs 10.6%). Positivity 6.39% (last Fri 8.81%) 8.34% (4.16%) 8.81% (3.72%). 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts Tues -6 to 297 (revised from 296 Thurs and 291 Wed) Wed -7 to 290 (revised from 286 Fri and 282 Thurs) Yest -10 to 280 (revised from 276 yest) (all weekend numbers subj to revision) Fri -7 to 273, Sat -20 to 253, Sun +2 to 255. 3/
Here's your AB COVID # analysis for Wed Dec 1st. 1/
Yest cases/d 435 an 8.3% decr from last Tues's 474. 7d Avde now 320, a 14.9% drop wk over wk from 376 (yest 13.3%). Positivity 4.07% down from last wk's 4.58%. All leading indicators trending down, so good. 2/
Hospitalizations: inpts. Sat -8 to 368 (revised from 367 yest). Sun -8 to 360 (revised from 359 yest). Mon +1 to 361 (revised from 353 yest). Yest -16 to 345 (subj to revision). ICU -2 to 79. Paeds admits: None! Deaths 7 incl another 20-29 year old 3/
This hot take is a dangerous bit of poor math. Neverymind that we don't actually know the data for Omicrom to inform this... 1/ smh.com.au/national/could…
even if it is more transmissible but less virulent, IT WILL STILL KILL MORE PEOPLE because more people get infected. This is the problem with exponential growth. 2/ theconversation.com/coronavirus-va…
but again, we don't know any of this. Avoid the Hopium. Use the precautionary principle until we know better. Then when we know better, do good science based planning. fin/