Thread by @McFaul

"Modernization theories, however, are bad at point predictions. Agency theories also deliver little predictive power about the specific moments of regime change...." 1/ THREAD

... since chance, fortuna, mistakes, or unexpected exogenous shocks (such as economic meltdown, war, or the death of a leader) always seem to play a major role in these models. 2/

Both structural and agency theoretical traditions shed only faint light on current regime stability or guidance about future change. 3/

But which is the more radical prediction—that Putinism will survive another two decades or that a new system, possibly a democratic one, will replace it? The former seems much more unlikely than the latter. 4/ END THREAD

journalofdemocracy.org/articles/russi… via @JoDemocracy