COVID sitrep for New Year’s Eve: The wave of omicron variant COVID-19 infections continues to spread around the world. Hospital admissions are rising across the UK but there are important differences to earlier waves…. 1/12 
This omicron variant seems to spread much more easily. Infection rates are smashing all previous records. 189,000 ‘cases’ yesterday. Yes, we are testing a lot more people, but the proportion who test positive is also going up (blue line in graph). 2/12
The big discussion now is how harmful the omicron variant might be. Lots of reports of high rates of ‘incidental’ infections in hospital - patients testing positive for coronavirus who were admitted to hospital for a different illness. So what’s happening on the ground? 3/12
The anecdotal reports of high rates of incidental infections represent the current situation in many hospitals, confirmed by @ChrisCEOHopson who gives updates from individual NHS hospitals. This pattern is different to previous waves. 4/12
https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1475540064121806856?s=20
However, while ‘incidental’ infections are higher, most patients who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 actually DO have the disease COVID-19 (65-75%). This from @ReicherStephen (I’m not certain of his data source). 5/12
https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1476546400888442880?s=20
The reason the issue of incidental infection is generating so much discussion is the previous fake argument made by some that all covid is harmless and people are dying of other illnesses: ‘with covid’ rather than ‘of covid’. Neat, persuasive and false. 6/12
Looking at overall hospital admissions with a positive covid PCR, these are definitely going up. Most do have covid even though some do not. In my region, we are preparing for a wave of admissions about half the size of the January 2021 peak. 7/12
What is interesting and increasingly promising is the fact that intensive care admissions are not rising in the way they did with previous waves. Omicron may spread more easily, but fewer covid patients are developing life-threatening illness than we were expecting. 8/12
Pulling this all together: Despite the huge size of the omicron wave, we think it is causing less harm, and harming fewer people than last winter. This is either because of vaccination, because the virus is becoming less pathogenic (harmful), or a combination of the two. 9/12
BUT omicron is still harming lots of people and causing major challenges for the NHS. Huge numbers of staff are absent with covid infection. Whether sick with covid or not, patients testing positive must isolate in hospital which creates lots of pressure on its own. And… 10/12
.…the NHS pressure may not be as bad as last winter, but it’s still REALLY bad. We are struggling to deliver all of our ‘routine’ work such as surgery and cancer care. Emergency departments and GP surgeries remain very busy. 11/12
Despite huge infection numbers, this covid wave is not like last winter. Still a lot of pressure on NHS services as evidenced by the temporary wards going up outside some hospitals. Our individual actions remain vital. Stay vaccinated and keep up your amazing efforts. 12/12
If you are interested in understanding the incidental infections issue a little better, this is a great thread from @doctimcook:
https://twitter.com/doctimcook/status/1476256967274471431?s=20
Original source was @chrischirp who has updated this analysis today:
https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1476866234524311588?s=20
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