According to excellent work by @Crimealytics, we can expect murder to be up about 7% nationally in 2021. That follows a 29% surge in homicides in 2020. Why is this happening? What can be done?
Short answer: this is happening because of the pandemic, politics, and guns. The pandemic has put everyone under intense pressure, but since #COVID concentrates among the same people and places that violence does, they feel it worst of all.
The more pressure, the more people act out. Adding on to that, the institutions responsible for responding to violence - police, community-based interrupters, etc. - are all under intense pressure too. As Rick Rosenfeld and I have said before, it's a perfect storm.
Now add the politics. In the US right now, you're either for the police or you're against them. No middle ground. The murder of George Floyd made this even more stark. A few leaders (@Johnson4Dallas, @ericadamsfornyc, Biden) push back, but this is still the national frame.
This "us vs. them" frame is profoundly destructive because everything we know about violence reduction tells us that (a) we need police, but (b) we need other partners too, and (c) we need everybody to work together. The current frame makes partnership really, really tough.
Finally the guns. There's been a massive surge in gun sales. Early on, research indicated those guns weren't contributing to homicides, but new data suggests the opposite. Also, cities are seeing a spike in illegal gun carrying. More guns in the wrong hands = more gun deaths.
What to do about all this? In July, the @CouncilonCJ established the Violent Crime Working Group to give policymakers easily accessible guidance on how to curb violent crime immediately. counciloncj.org/violent-crime-…
Since July, we've met 11 times, heard from experts, produced two reports on crime trends, held 2 public web events, and issued 7 bulletins updating you on our progress. The bulletins feature concrete suggestions for policy and practice, here's an example: counciloncj.org/meeting-bullet…
In about 2 weeks, we'll release our final report, setting out 10 actions policymakers should take to reduce violence right now. Our group represents everyone - community members, cops, academics, activists - and we found a way to come together, so please look at what we've done.
Gun violence is not inevitable or insurmountable. If you choose the right tactics and strategies, you can make a difference. Stop trying to win the argument, and just focus on fixing the problem, and progress can be made. Lives are at stake, no more should die needlessly.
@revciera @CarventeHernan @LHarlleeHarper @DrDanIsom @LondonKite @ajimaolaghere @ProfEmilyOwens @DrAlexPiquero @jasonpotts562 @LAPDETingirides @DanielWWebster1
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